What are Unaffiliated Voters in North Carolina Thinking?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Civitas wrapped up another poll lunch on August 23, this time delving into the topic of the growing segment of unaffiliated voters across the state. In assessing the responses, I thought the three constitutional amendments supported by Civitas polled a little better than one might expect. Voter ID had the support of 63 percent of those surveyed, lowering the income tax cap to 7 percent had the support of 60 percent, and the right to hunt and fish polled at 65 percent. They are all popular amendments, and even with unaffiliated voters every one of them hit a minimum threshold of 60 percent support.

Republicans still trail Democrats on the generic ballot for Congress and the state legislature, but in looking at the poll, there is still a substantial number who are undecided. This is true too in the North Carolina Supreme Court race. Most casual voters don’t start paying attention to races until after Labor Day, so there is time for the GOP to make up ground with unaffiliated voters. At the same time, with so many still undecided, Democrats could open up a bigger lead. It’s possible that more recent scandals or questions concerning President Donald Trump could galvanize more of the electorate towards Democrat candidates across the state and nation.

Trump’s approve / disapproval ( – 3) rating is within the margin of error in North Carolina for unaffiliated voters, but the poll was taken before the convictions of former Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort and former Trump attorney Michael Cohen implicating Trump in alleged criminal wrongdoing.

Given the number of undecided voters, whatever way they decide to break will obviously be key to the outcome in November.

The poll surveyed 500 likely unaffiliated voters in North Carolina with a +/- 4.4% margin of error. The survey was conducted August 8-21, 2018. Crosstabs can be found here.