Every August, Civitas polls NC unaffiliated voters to find out what this crucial voting bloc thinks. This year, our unaffiliated poll will be unveiled at Poll Lunch on Aug. 18 in Raleigh. We invite all interested citizens to attend. There are seats still available. To find out more or sign up online, click here.
It might be interesting to look back and see what unaffiliated voters were thinking at the same point before the last presidential nomination. The key questions and responses in our 2012 live-caller poll of NC unaffiliated voters are as follows:
As you may know, the General Election for President, Governor and Congress is going to be held in November this year. How much attention have you been paying to the various campaigns so far? Would you say you have been paying…
88% Great deal/Moderate
12% Little bit/ None
42% A great deal of attention
46% A moderate amount of attention
11% Only a little bit of attention
Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?
2010 2011 2012
29% 25% 31% Right Direction
53% 61% 56% Wrong Track
17% 14% 13% Don’t Know/Unsure (DO NOT READ)
1% — — Refused (DO NOT READ)
And if the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the… (ROTATE)
2010 2011 2012
39% 32% 37% Republican Candidate
27% 29% 32% Democratic Candidate
15% 14% 6% Neither (DO NOT READ)
18% 24% 23% Don’t Know (DO NOT READ)
1% 1% 2% Refused (DO NOT READ)
When you think about voting for North Carolina offices like the state legislature, what issue or problem should be their highest priority? (RANDOMIZE)
2010 2011 2012
41% 45% 45% Economy and jobs
15% 16% 19% Improving public education
4% 4% 3% Holding down taxes
7% 5% 5% Reducing healthcare costs
5% 4% 4% Government Corruption
2% 2% 3% Moral Issues
17% 14% 14% Budget/Spending
7% 2% 4% Illegal Immigration
1% 5% 2% Other (DO NOT READ)
2% 3% 1% Not sure (DO NOT READ)
— — — Refused (DO NOT READ)
Now I am going to read you a list of people active in politics. After I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have never heard of them just tell me and we’ll go on to the next one…the (first/next) one is…(RANDOMIZE)
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF – NO OPIN (DNR) NEVER HEARD OF (DNR)
Barack Obama
2012 49% 45% 6% 1%
2011 46% 47% 6% 1%
2010 42% 49% 8% —
Mitt Romney
2012 41% 48% 10% 1%
Bev Perdue
2012 37% 52% 9% 2%
2011 39% 44% 14% 3%
2010 42% 40% 15% 2%
Pat McCrory
2012 45% 24% 22% 9%
Walter Dalton
2012 23% 20% 29% 27%
===============================================================
Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?
2010 2011 2012
44% 44% 50% Total Approve
52% 52% 47% Total Disapprove
20% 17% 27% Strongly Approve
24% 27% 23% Somewhat Approve
10% 17% 9% Somewhat Disapprove
43% 35% 38% Strongly Disapprove
4% 5% 2% Undecided/Don’t Know (DO NOT READ)
— — 1% Refused (DO NOT READ
Some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you say you will make your FINAL decision on which candidate you are going to vote for?
7% On Election Day
14% The Last Few Days Before The Election
3% During One Stop Voting The Last 3 Weeks Of October
6% During The Last Two Weeks In October
4% Before One Stop Voting Starts October 16
3% In September
60% Already Have
3% Don’t Know/ Refused (DO NOT READ)
If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE) Mitt Romney, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?
45% Total Romney
45% Total Obama
39% Definitely Romney
5% Probably Romney
1% Lean Romney
7% Undecided (DO NOT READ)
2% Lean Obama
4% Probably Obama
38% Definitely Obama
3% Refused (DO NOT READ)
(Voters who preferred Romney were asked:)
To the best of your ability, please complete the following sentence: “If I have one hesitation in voting for Mitt Romney, it is…” (OPEN END)
18% Unfavorable/ Disagree with this views/ Negative (general)
17% Dishonest/ Untrustworthy/ Fake
14% Out of touch with lower and middle class/ Not for the people
14% Dislike his religious beliefs/ Dislike that he is Mormon
13% Dislike stance on moral issues/ Women’s rights/ Dislike abortion policy
3% Voting record/ Past record
9% None/ Nothing
12% Don’t know/ Don’t know what to believe
(Voters who preferred Obama were asked:)
To the best of your ability, please complete the following sentence: “If I have one hesitation in voting for Barack Obama, it is…” (OPEN END)
22% Ineffective/ Got nothing done/ Not doing a good job/ Too much opposition
16% Unfavorable/ Disagree with this views/ Negative (general)
16% Dislike his moral values/ Disagree with stance on gay marriage
8% Dislike healthcare reform/ Obamacare
6% Poor economy/ To blame for economy
6% No job growth/ High unemployment rate
3% Fiscally irresponsible/ Too much spending
3% Other
5% None/Nothing
15% Don’t know
(ASK ALL)
If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE)
46% Pat McCrory, the Republican
29% Walter Dalton, the Democrat
10% Barbara Howe, the Libertarian
33% DEFINITELY MCCRORY 3% DEFINITELY HOWE
12% PROBABLY MCCRORY 5% PROBABLY HOWE
1% LEAN MCCRORY 1% LEAN HOWE
18% DEFINITELY DALTON 13% HARD UNDECIDED (DNR)
8% PROBABLY DALTON 1% OTHER (DNR)
2% LEAN DALTON 2% REFUSED (DNR)
In your own words can you please tell me why you are registered as an Independent or Unaffiliated? (OPEN END)
30% Do not want to be told to vote for a certain party/ To vote for whoever I want/ To keep my options open/ To vote in either primary/ Don’t want to be committed to one party/ Don’t like voting a straight ticket
27% Vote for the person not the party/ Vote on the person’s views on issues/ Vote for who I think will do the best job representing me
22% Do not agree with either party/ Do not want to be associated with either party/ Don’t think any one party is right/ Parties need to work together/ I’m in the middle/ I can see both sides
5% Have always been unaffiliated/ Independent
4% Not happy with politicians/ Can’t trust them
3% Don’t like political parties/ Don’t like the two party system (non-specific)
2% I lean Republican
2% I lean Democrat
2% Was a Democrat/ Do not agree with my previous party anymore
2% Personal choice/ Personal reasons
2% Was a Republican/ Do not agree with my previous party anymore
2% Do not want to be bothered with mail/ E-mail/ Door-step visits/ Phone calls
— Other
10% None/ Nothing/ Not registered unaffiliated/ Am a Republican/ Democrat
1% Don’t know
2% Refused
On fiscal issues, like taxes and government spending, do you generally consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate or a conservative?
2010 2011 2012
11% 11% 14% Liberal
28% 40% 38% Moderate
58% 43% 42% Conservative
3% 6% 6% Don’ Know/Refused (DO NOT READ)
On social issues, like abortion and marriage, do you generally consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate or a conservative?
2010 2011 2012
30% 35% 32% Liberal
24% 23% 28% Moderate
42% 35% 35% Conservative
4% 6% 5% Don’ Know/Refused (DO NOT READ)
And, in partisan elections, which of the following would best describe the way you vote? (ROTATE TOP-TO-BOTTOM/BOTTOM TO TOP)
2011 2012
35% 36% Total Republican
39% 40% Total Democrat
8% 10% Always vote Democrat
31% 31% Vote Democrat more often than Republican
30% 31% Vote Republican more often than Democrat
5% 5% Always vote Republican
16% 16% Both equally – Split ticket (DO NOT READ)
9% 7% Not Sure/ Don’t Know (DO NOT READ)
2% — Refused (DO NOT READ)
Which of the following most reflects your beliefs regarding the impact of taxes: (ROTATE)
2010 2011 2012
55% 43% 49% Tax increases harm economic growth and cause jobs to be lost
28% 17% 15% Tax increases have no real effect on the economy and job creation
* 27% 25% Tax increases will improve the economy by adding revenue to government
14% 12% 9% Don’t Know/ No Opinion (DO NOT READ)
2% 1% 1% Refused (DO NOT READ)
Please tell me which of the following opinions about government spending comes closer to your own. (ROTATE)
39% (Some/Other) people say now is not the time to ask taxpayers to fund more government spending. They say that in an ideal world, more funding would be available for important programs, but during these difficult economic times, sacrifices need to made, including capping, reducing or even de-funding some state government services.
51% (Other/Some) people say that funding state programs such as education and medical services is such a vital and important role that taxes should be increased to fully fund them. They say that funding these programs now will save us money in the long term, for example, by investing in education to train a competitive workforce, and by funding medical services now so that the needs of seniors and the poor don’t multiply due to lack of medical care.
10 % Don’t Know (DO NOT READ)
1 % Refused (DO NOT READ)
Do you support or oppose exploring for oil and natural gas on land and off the coast of North Carolina?*
2010* 2011* 2012
51% 60% 63% Total Support
38% 32% 26% Total Oppose
24% 32% 34% Strongly Support
27% 29% 29% Somewhat Support
11% 13% 12% Somewhat Oppose
27% 19% 14% Strongly Oppose
10% 8% 11% Don’t Know/ No Opinion (DO NOT READ)
* Previous wording “… drilling for oil and natural gas off the coast of North Carolina?”
North Carolina has passed legislation authorizing Tax Credits for parents of special needs children to allow them to attend schools that charge tuition. Some people argue that giving parents choice will improve educational outcomes for all students while others argue that taking students away from traditional public schools weaken those schools. Which of the following statements comes closer to your opinion on the issue of school choice and public schools? (ROTATE)
2011 2012
61% 67% Giving parents more choice in K-12 education will improve education for students. North Carolina should move towards allowing more choice in K-12 education for parents and children.
28% 26% The state should be the primary educator of all K-12 children. Any legislation that allows parents the ability to move children out of the traditional K-12 public school system will weaken public education.
9% 6% Don’t Know (DO NOT READ)
2% 1% Refused (DO NOT READ)
In May 2012, North Carolina voters approved a constitutional amendment that defined marriage as between one man and one woman and as the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State. Do you agree or disagree with that vote?
48% Total Agree
48% Total Disagree
39% Strongly Agree
9% Somewhat Agree
10% Somewhat Disagree
38% Strongly Disagree
4% Undecided/Don’t Know (DO NOT READ)
— Refused (DO NOT READ)
Do you support or oppose the death penalty for First-degree murder?
2010 2011 2012
64% 62% 62% Total Support
27% 30% 28% Total Oppose
40% 36% 41% Strongly Support
24% 26% 20% Somewhat Support
12% 14% 14% Somewhat Oppose
15% 17% 15% Strongly Oppose
8% 7% 10% Don’t Know/ No Opinion (DO NOT READ)
1% 1% — Refused (DO NOT READ)
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s Health Care law?*
2010* 2011* 2012
40% 42% 45% Total Support
51% 47% 48% Total Oppose
23% 16% 26% Strongly Support
16% 26% 18% Somewhat Support
9% 12% 8% Somewhat Oppose
42% 36% 40% Strongly Oppose
9% 9% 7% Don’t Know/ No Opinion (DO NOT READ)
— 1% — Refused (DO NOT READ)
* Previous wording “…President Obama’s Health Care reform law?”
Who did you vote for or support in the 2008 Presidential Election? (ROTATE)
2010 2011 2012
44% 50% 50% Barack Obama
47% 37% 36% John McCain
3% 4% 3% Someone Else (DO NOT READ)
2% 5% 9% Don’t Remember/ Didn’t Vote/Support a candidate (DNR)
4% 4% 3% Refused (DO NOT READ)
Poll Facts
The poll surveyed 400 Independent/Unaffiliated Voters; the margin of error was +/- 4.9%. Field Dates: August 20-21, 2012
No doubt…the goal of this post is to convince voters that they should vote for Trump … what will your grandchildren say?
They will say old George forgot to say wink and a nod.
HaHaHa.