In only the second time in our nearly four and a half years of polling at the Civitas Institute, Republicans lead the generic legislative ballot here in North Carolina.
Our latest poll has it at 40.7% Republican, 37.8% Democratic.
Coincidentally (or not?) the only two times the Republicans have led the generic ballot has been when the State Board of Elections has been investigating an high-ranking Democratic official. Republicans led by 1 point back in March 2006, immediately after the former Speaker Jim Black hearings, and lead today with the former Gov. Mike Easley hearings.
Democrats have averaged a five point advantage over the past four years, hitting a high of a 15% advantage at the beginning of this year.
Full press release, results and crosstabs here.
If the difference in responses is within the MoE, how do you know there is really a lead?
It seems to me the NCGOP has never actually led in the generic legislative ballot test.
I’m curious to hear what you all think about the approve/disapprove tie on business incentives and a multitude of responses indicating overwhelming opposition to tax increases.