The Obama campaign keeps talking about registering voters, they’ve been at it (talking that is) for more than a year now with announcements of new voter registration campaigns and drives while hiring people and recruiting volunteers to do the work.
But, in North Carolina the numbers just don’t add up. After you read this article, click on the link below and take a look at our voter registration database – there you will see that since the 2008 General Election Democrats have lost a total of 137,776 voters, while Republicans dropped 31,744 voters from their rolls since November 2008. Only the Libertarian Party (+9,682) and the unaffiliated (+167,396) rolls have grown since 2008. Just last month the Democrats lost 5,823 voters, while Republicans lost 3,328 and Libertarians lost 24 and the unaffiliated ranks fell by 2,297 voters.
Compare these new numbers to the voter registration numbers in the year leading up to the 2008 General Election when Democrats gained 360,143 voters and Republicans only added 85,811 to their rolls and candidate Barack Obama won this state by only 14,171 votes. (Read the March edition of the Civitas Capitol Connection for more information on voter registration in 2008)
And now, its the First Lady rallying the “grassroots” to register people to vote. In this video, Mrs. Obama challenged the crowd to “keep registering those voters” she even said that they need to “get ‘em and shake ‘em – find ‘em and get ‘em registered.” “This election,” she said, “could come down to those last few thousand people that we register to vote. Think about it like that.”
I am beginning to wonder if the Obama campaign hasn’t seen the latest voter registration numbers in North Carolina and maybe Michelle Obama is their last hope in their voter registration efforts.
Carolina Transparency Voter Registration
The analytical problem here is a discussion of apples and oranges. The post above quite accurately notes NET voter numbers, which is new voters minus cancellations. Cancellations reflect voters who move, die or have felony convictions. NET is easier to figure because that’s all that is reported directly on the SBoE website. Campaigns however look at gross numbers of new voters to measurw succwss, a total you get only by asking the state or local board who will send you the info usually within a day. For example Orange County has had a net increase of 4,886 voters since January 1, but has had a gross total of 11,223 new voters.