Astute observers like Mickey Kaus wonder if there’s really a floor under the president’s approval level.
First, as is often said, the only poll that counts is on the first Tuesday in November. My take: voters look on the president as they look on airline pilots when the jetliner is in the air — it is psychologically untenable to think the pilot can’t fly the plane.
But, when it’s safe to make a change, then they will consider it. That’s what I thought in 1980, and I was a liberal then. People decided, hey, Carter isn’t cutting it, this guy might not be so bad.
Nevertheless, for Obama, look at our verbatim responses in the Civitas Poll. The people with him are with him. They say he’s a good man, or he needs another term, or it wasn’t his fault, or the problems were big, he cares about people, etc. These reasons, generally, cannot be refuted. We can’t peer into a different universe to see if he could have done them better, etc. And it’s not against the laws of logic to think he might do better in a second term, or a tenth, or whatever.
Their reasons for support are impervious to logic or experience or even emotion. They’re for him; they’re for him. His performance as president is rather beside the point.
That’s what we mean by a floor. That doesn’t mean it can’t be bent. Or that the 10 percent in the middle won’t break for Romney. But from our vantage point, his supporters are with him no matter what. Conservatives should not take false comfort in thinking he will lose that base.
Those you describe are of two sorts….the diehard rabid Progressive that will invariably support their current Champion….no matter what is said, happens, or damage is being done to the country. Their agenda is their sole reason for being.
The other bunch that shall support him blindly are the stupid, lazy, free riding hands out palm upward, and intellectually challenged. They each have a reason they shall support the guy who will give them what they seek at the least amount of effort or risk to themselves.
Of those that Voted for him in 2008….there are more than a few that realize they got suckered, understand the damage being done, and who shall flee from him like Rats leaving a sinking ship.
As this campaign goes along….with crass political moves like Pinky Reid’s baseless accusation about Romney not paying taxes, the Democratic ad that accuses Romney of killing some guys wife when she died of Cancer, calling Romney a Felon for some SEC filings that even the SEC said were quite normal….in time these desperate vile attempts to slander Romney shall backfire horribly. The American people are a lot smarter than the Axlerod/Messina/Reid/Pelosi/Obama crowd think they are.
Obama shall not win this time….and I see a thrashing coming that will make 2010 look like a walk in the park. The country still has a Conservative majority….it is shrinking but it still exists. Amongst the Democrats….there are still folks that lean to the right….especially as compared to their Party Leadership.
All we have to do is look at the Marriage Amendment vote here in North Carolina….where were all those Obama supporters then?
Remember Obama only won North Carolina by 14,177 votes in 2008. There is no reason not to be confident of a Romney victory in 2012 here in North Carolina.