The legislative Fiscal Research Division is out with a new report updating the state’s General Fund revenue and economic outlook. Some highlights from the report:
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General Fund revenue through three quarters of the fiscal year is $110 million above a $14.3 billion revenue target.
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Tax revenues are $126 million above a $13.5 billion target, while non-tax revenue (such as judicial fees) are slightly below targeted projections.
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Since last year, the State added nearly 64,000 jobs. At the same time the labor force grew by 64,500 (seasonally adjusted). The combination of modest growth and a growing work force has kept the unemployment rate from falling. In other words, job growth didn’t keep pace with the growth of the labor force.
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Non-Agricultural employment (seasonally adjusted) has increased by 197,000 jobs since employment bottomed-out in February 2010, but remains 136,400 below the peak in February 2008.
Key questions remain to be seen, including: will NC see an “April surpirise” in revenue collections (i.e. a surge or drop-off in expected revenue from end-of year filings), and if revenue continues at a higher than expected rate, what will state budget writers do with the extra funds?
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