Is the Republican Party gaining ground among a key voting bloc in North Carolina?
Yesterday’s Civitas Poll Lunch was an especially good example of why these events are so rewarding. At the luncheon, we not only unveil the results of our latest poll, you can see them in a very helpful graphic presentation. Also, commentators break down the poll and provide further insights.
At yesterday’s poll lunch, Civitas President Francis De Luca and well-known political analyst John Davis illuminated our latest poll, which was our annual August poll of unaffiliated voters.
It is a crucial group. Unaffiliated voters now make up more than 29 percent of the electorate, just a tad behind the Republicans. In this tumultuous election year, parties must appeal to the unaffiliated voters.
As we like to emphasize, every poll is one snapshot of a fluid political scene, and a lot can happen. But some of the poll results hinted at a trend among affiliated voters. Consider these key questions.
One is the generic ballot question:
And if the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the …
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
39% 32% 37% 29% 28% 28% 44% Republican
27% 29% 32% 39% 33% 30% 30% Democratic
15% 14% 6% 16% 14% 14% 6% Neither
18% 24% 23% 15% 25% 27% 20% Don’t Know
1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% * Refused
Note that, among this group, the Republicans had a 16-point edge. That is even a bigger advantage than the GOP has in 2010, which of course was a very good year for Republicans at the polls.
Next, we asked about their partisan leanings:
And, in partisan elections, which of the following would best describe the way you vote?
2011 2012 2014 2015 2016
35% 36% 31% 33% 41% Total Republican
39% 40% 45% 38% 30% Total Democrat
8% 10% 6% 9% 7% Always vote Democrat
31% 31% 38% 29% 23% Vote Democrat more often than Republican
30% 31% 25% 27% 34% Vote Republican more often than Democrat
5% 5% 6% 6% 7% Always vote Republican
16% 16% 18% 22% 21% Both equally – Split ticket
9% 7% 6% 4% 8% Not Sure/ Don’t Know
2% — — 2% * Refused
Also:
In terms of political party, do you identify more with the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or something else?
37% Total Republican
23% Total Democrat
20% Strong Republican
17% Not So Strong Republican
11% Not So Strong Democrat
12% Strong Democrat
37% Independent/Unaffiliated/Other
3% Don’t Know/Refused
As De Luca and Davis pointed out, a lot can happen. Future Civitas Polls will keep us attuned to what NC voters are thinking.
For more on the August unaffiliated voter poll, click here.
Leave a Comment