The first ‘exit poll’ for the Hagan-Tillis race

Our final poll shows a dead heat in the Senate race. As it includes some people who have already voted, you could call it the first “exit poll.”

At your pre-election event, Dem consultant Brad Crone predicts Kay Hagan pulls out a win.

The political future: the unaffiliated voters.

Republican consultant Michael Luethy: it really is 50-50 in the U.S. Senate race.

Independent expenditures defined Republicans in a negative way in key races in late summer, he says.

Donald Bryson of AFP: in 2008, Obama campaign did good job of micro-targeting of voters. He reviews the AFP plan.

Francis X. De Luca: The media beat up on Thom Tillis.

Also: 20 and 8. Hagan raised $20M, Tillis $8M. That is key, for the campaigns buy ads at the cheapest rates.

The independent expenditures cancelled each other out.