The cover story for the September issue of Capitol Connection focuses on what is shaping up to be a raucous election in 2020. North Carolina is ground zero for a competitive presidential race, where President Donald Trump has a slight lead. Last year I pointed out how North Carolina is now more of a swing state than Ohio and Florida. It remains to be seen how impeachment coverage will impact the president in North Carolina and nationally, given that our polling predates much the current focus on the issue. Trump seems to think impeachment coverage and talk will backfire on Democrats, putting more focus on a Congress that is not moving legislation or focusing on other important issues. At least some evidence supports that at the moment.
One of the reasons Republicans surged in Florida in 2018 was support for school choice. In Georgia, Brian Kemp defeated Stacey Abrams despite a strong national and media push for Abrams. In Florida, Ron Desantis came from behind to secure an upset against Andrew Gillum. Both Gillum and Abrams are African-American. Some journalists and left-wing activists lashed out on Twitter because of reports that a significant bloc of the black vote defected to Republicans over school choice.
In Georgia, black women overwhelmingly supported Abrams but black men voted for Kemp at a rate of about 8 percent higher, giving him low double digit support overall. Yet, 18 percent of black female voters pulled the lever for Desantis in Florida, citing school choice as a major issue. It will be interesting to see if conservatives can capitalize more on the school schoice issue at the ballot box in North Carolina, potentially making inroads with minority voters.
Below are the latest Civitas presidential polling numbers in North Carolina:
| Trump 45% | Trump 46% | Trump 47% | Trump 46% |
| Biden 44% | Sanders 44% | Harris 41% | Warren 43% |
| Undecided 11% | Undecided 10% | Undecided 12% | Undecided 11% |
While the race for governor will likely tighten, it’s unclear how vulnerable incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper may be given his consistently strong numbers in Civitas Polls.
| Cooper v. Forest | Cooper v. Grange | Cooper v. McCrory |
| Cooper 48% | Cooper 48% | Cooper 47% |
| Forest 36% | Grange 30% | McCrory 38% |
| Undecided 15% | Undecided 22% | Undecided 14% |
Below is the print edition for September available in pdf. Civitas remains committed to providing top-level policy analysis and polling up to the election.
