RALEIGH – A new Civitas flash poll shows Trump leading Clinton in North Carolina the week following party conventions.
All relevant questions and results can be found below, and crosstabs are available here.
1. If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
46% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
7% Undecided
2. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be better at creating jobs? Donald Trump? or Hillary Clinton?
51% Trump
41% Clinton
8% Not Sure
3. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve effectively as president? Donald Trump? or Hillary Clinton?
38% Trump
52% Clinton
9% Not Sure
4. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would do a better job responding to an international crisis?
44% Trump
49% Clinton
8% Not Sure
5. And who would do a better job dealing with terrorism?
48% Trump
43% Clinton
9% Not Sure
6. Who is more honest and trustworthy?
45% Trump
36% Clinton
19% Not Sure
7. Who is a stronger leader?
47% Trump
44% Clinton
10% Not Sure
8. Who has higher moral standards?
41% Trump
38% Clinton
21% Not Sure
SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using Registration-list Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle of Washington, DC. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
To arrange an interview with Civitas President Francis De Luca, email Demi Dowdy at demi.dowdy@nccivitas.org or call (919) 747-8064.
Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to creating a North Carolina whose citizens enjoy liberty and prosperity derived from limited government, personal responsibility and civic engagement. Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters.
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What were the demographics? Did you poll more Repubkicans? Sorry this poll is bogus
The cross tabs are very disappointing. The previous format was much more informative. It does give the impression you’re hiding numbers. How, for example, did you find that 36% of African Americans are voting for Trump when your previous polls showed ~4%
The Civitas Institute is North Carolina’s most broadly supported conservative policy organization. We’re not just a “think-tank”. We aggressively work to diminish the influence of the Left in our state and effectively communicate the benefits of conservative policies to the legislature and the citizens of North Carolina. https://www.nccivitas.org/donate/
Hard not to question a pollster that proclaims “We aggressively work to diminish the influence of the Left”.
No way does Trump have that many black supporters. This is nuta
This “result” is so out of line with all the other recent national and local poles, I cannot find it credible by any stretch of the imagination.
African Americans make up 22% of NC’s population. In the sample they have just 19% of the total N. However, in the last 5 presidential election cycles, over 90% of African Americans in NC voted Democratic. At most Trump could get 12% of the AA vote in NC, and more likely just 5-8%.
It’s something on the order of an 8% total swing if the African American vote is what it traditionally is or 46 Clinton and 42 Trump.
As a Trump voter I’m disappointed in this poll, I found it on Real Clear Politics.
This is North Carolina, a very tight race and you put out a poll after conventions with a MOE of 5.0
Why did you bother?
I’d like to see a real picture please.
“We aggressively work to diminish the influence of the Left”…
.it is easy to see that the organization is not impartial otherwise it would have stated that they they aggressively work to diminish the influence of EITHER PARTY and not use a term that in and of itself is partisan.
The black vote will not come out for Hillary this time. She will get about 87% of a much smaller number.
Last 2012 poll you had Romney winning by 1. He won by 2. So might be Trump’s lead is actually 5.
It is fair to quote the website on this poll, but also remember the ppp polling firm that runs the other polls in NC is far left and during their polls compared Trump to live and other things. National polls have gone heavy the last 3 days but Nevada was just a 1 point Hillary and the battleground CBS was only 2 points so not sure how much state by state there is. Just Saturday Nate silver projected Trump as the (albeit slight ) favorite – so the fall has all been these last few days.
Sorry compared Trump to “lice” – darn auto correct.
Problem with this weeks polls coming out of the convention is only the FoxNews poll had “the Khan question” baked in (69% thought Trump’s reaction was “out of bounds”) When Rasmussen comes in tomorrow it will bury Trump and the state polls with the Khan question will liklely follow suit (at least for this week)
Looks like the black population was under represented. This pollster isn’t even rated http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Agree on the Khan question. Liberals were shocked at how effective Romney’s convention speech was – but he has been off message and worse since.
Without the demographics, we should all consider this as a Bogus Poll
Is there any more info on the demographic breakdown. Without that there’s now way to know if this poll is valid.
I don’t blame right wingers for working for their man Trump… just be clear that you are working for Trump. This is a Republican poll, right?
Demographics are reached last by clicking “here” in the second line. As to the poll, we commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct this Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll as a part of our educational mission. We publish the results they give us without adjusting the numbers.
Civitas commissions polls and does not perform polls just like local TV stations and newspapers. Civitas also conducts a regular statewide “live caller” survey performed by National Research.
Francis X. De Luca
Civitas President
THe polls are not accurate. WE all know the media is in support of Corrupt Hillary. I don’t understand how stupid voters are not taking a close look at the shady history of the Clintons. THey are both phones,, and hide a lot of facts to make themselves look good. To alow them back into the White House is a des aster to happen. BIll Clinton has already been impeached by the House of Representatives. HE was caught being dishonest in the Lawinskie affair. ONce is enough with these two. It’s hard to believe people have such short memory. I do agree that Trump does not think about what he say’s. and the consequences what it is interpreted by the media. HIlary is in for it for pure personal reasons. She will say anything to get elected. Do you realize she already has a Senator pension, a Secatary of State pension? Combined that with Bill Clintons Governer pension and Presidet pension, then add Hillary’s presidential pension, the both of them will make close to a Million dollars a year? THey are not worth it!
Civitas commissioned SurveyUSA to do this poll.
SurveyUSA has an “A” rating according to 538 analysis of 763 polls, the most of any polling organization.
But they do show a slight bias, their polls lean Democrat by 0.1%
I live in NC and the race is neck and neck the only race that you can pretty well say is pretty well over and will definitely go Republican is Richard Burr vs Deborah Ross. I see no scenario unless Burr is found with a dead body or live farm animal that he will lose to Burr, as a matter of fact i don’t see it even being close. Burr is going to cream Ross and badly. However, all other races are up in the air including Governor and President. Roy Cooper has a chance to beat Pat Mcrory and that HB2 thing isn’t going to help the Governor at all, Also Hillary can win NC. I personally don’t think she will the state but I do think she will win the election overall, but the state is winnable for her. Trump can screw up and lose this state.
Remember when Bill Clinton allowed this 2nd mentally ill black man to death?
Just to pretend he was tough on crime?
Another black Arkansan who suffered from mental illness, Ricky Ray Rector, became world-famous upon his execution in 1992. Then-governor Bill Clinton left the campaign trail in January of that year to sign the warrant for Rectors execution. Rectors mental capacity was such that when taken from his cell as a dead man walking he told a guard to save his pie. He thought he would return to finish his dessert. I try to remember this story when I am told that all black people love Bill Clinton or that he should be considered the first black president. Clinton wasnt black when Rector needed him. He was just another politician who didnt want to be labeled soft on crime.
http://www.alternet.org/story/17590/the_disturbing_death_of_charles_singleton/
Trump is going to kick HRC back to the hell hole she and Bill crawled out from. Land slide.
NC is a cracker state & got the state gerrymandered just like a cracker racist like trump—-jey u crackers get a life bogots
hey u NC Crackers—-u racist voting law went in the toilet just like where trump is going—downtown–10 feet down in the ground and no one around except the devil himself and donald burning in hell—HAHAHA
hey ‘Doug Whiner’ … Im sort of a ‘rightwinger’ and I do NOT support Trumpet.
Did you know that Hillary Clinton is definitely THE MOST EVIL WOMAN on the planet ? ? ? She has fleeced the poorest countries of over $2 BILLION for her criminal family ‘foundation’.
Did you ever wonder WHY the TRUE HISTORY of the democrackkk party of slavery is NEVER taught in government screwls ?
It’s by design and WHY we have such an IGNORANCE population. Start asking your government school ‘officials’ that question!
Oh, the answers can be found in the new blockbuster movie, ‘Hillary’s America’, in which D’nesh D’souza weaves democrackkk history
into the story of the most evil woman in the world.
My Son and Two daughters will vote for Donald Trump. Vincent Germano a veteran of WW2, doesent wont Hillery to be President , ever of our Country. God Bless Mr. Trump and His Fine Family, Vincent Germano
http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2016/08/05/just-how-ridiculous-is-the-latest-pope-civitas-poll/
ok that’s a fraudument poll — in the mold of Rasmussen and other right fraudulent pollsters. This pollster is a joke and deserves to be arrested
“FINALLY, AN HONEST POLLING FOR A CHANGE” THE DEMOCRATS, MEDIA & HILLARY ALL WANTS TO RIG THE POLLS & THE ELECTION. IT IS LIKE THEY ARE LITTLE CHILDREN THAT THEY CAN NOT WIN FAIR & SQUARE. TRUMP HAS A BETTER TEMPERAMENT THEN HILLARY. JUST ASK THEIR SECURITY GUARDS. THE PEOPLE THAT ARE WITH THEM WITHOUT THE CAMERA’S ROLLING WILL TELL YOU THE TRUTH. ((OH, I AM SORRY, THAT’S RIGHT THE TRUTH YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND)) WE HAVE TO SPELL IT OUT TO LITTLE CHILDREN. ** T R U T H ** THAT IS HOW TO SPELL TRUTH. LOOK UP THE DEFINITION FOR THE MEANING. HILLARY IS FILLED WITH LIES, FRAUD, CORRUPTION, & POSE A SECURITY THREAT FOR THE AMERICANS WITH ILLEGALS & OPEN BORDERS.. . SHE IS UNFIT & UNQUALIFIED TO BE COMMANDER & CHIEF.
For what it’s worth, less partisan polls pretty uniformly have Clinton leading Trump by 2-4 as of this day, Aug 8. Civitas “polling” admits its bias — to counter the Left — so why poll? Your results will always be skewed.
I think somewhere in a bomb shelter in North Korea there’s a junior officer, who has only a slightest grasp on the English language, tasked with writing posts in favor Trump, using names like “frances osmon” and DAniel Ingalls”.
As far as minority voting, I don’t anticipate as much activity (i.e. bussing in groups of minorities that typically don’t vote) to vote for Hillary as I personally witnessed in the last 2 presidential elections on behalf of Obama.
im a trump suporter–we dont need 4 more years of the same ole same ole–especialy the clintons..trump tells the truth abd democratics get mad when he does–so get over it this country is going down hill fast if she is elected thers no more usa.
I was one of the people called for this survey.
I am Republican, I am Christian, I am pro-life, and, I am a mother.
Donald Trump did not always have my vote; I was backing Ben Carson, however, given the choice between Mr. Trump and Ms. Clinton (who’s failed voting record, deception, shady dealings, Benghazi, and the list could go on and on and on…), I will stand firmly behind Mr. Trump.
Our country is in dire need of someone who can take the reigns and turn it around.
We are a laughing stock around the world, other countries have zero respect for us any longer.
Our military is depleted.
Our veterans are dying while on waiting list to see a doctor at their local V.A.
Race relations are the worst they have been since the 1960’s (and our, so called, leaders, are doing nothing to improve this situation), instead, they seem to be condoning it and making it worse.
ISIS is a very real threat to this nation, but the powers that be, refuse to even acknowledge that fact.
Violence in this country is rampant, just this past week, a 70 year old woman was attacked by a young black man with a tire iron while leaving a Dollar General, a few weeks ago, another elderly lady was forced out of her car and beaten by two young black males who stole her purse and left her lying on the highway. I live in a small town which is spiraling downward at a breakneck pace because people feel they are ‘entitled’ to what others have and they are determined to take it by whatever means necessary.
Our country is in a royal mess, and we need strong leadership at this time…not more of the same failed policies of the past that have gotten us to this point.
You know jimmyjack racist remarks like yours just proves that racism is alive and well. Maybe you should read the story of how Trump helped a black woman on drugs that worked for him get clean and she’s not the only black person he has helped. Really, really you have to show ID to do most things such as fly some where, cash a check, buy alcohol, apply for food stamps, cigarettes and so on and so on, your argument does hold any validity.