May 14, 2015
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
Civitas Poll Compares Answers to Those in Its First Poll, from 2005
RALEIGH – The most recent Civitas Poll of North Carolina voters compared their current views with the positions of voters in May 2005, when Civitas took its first poll.
The 2015 poll surveyed 600 registered North Carolina voters, 30 percent of whom were reached on cell phones. The survey was taken May 5-7, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.
The May 2005 poll was taken by Tel Opinion Research. In it 1,000 voters were surveyed, and it had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 percent.
Text of selected questions*:
Are you presently registered to vote in North Carolina? (If Yes, “With which political Party are you affiliated?)
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 38% | 33% | Republican |
| 50% | 40% | Democrat |
| 12% | 27% | Unaffiliated/ Other Party |
Regardless of your party registration, do you …
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 38% | 38% | Total Democrat |
| 29% | 30% | Total Republican |
| 20% | 19% | Always vote Democrat |
| 18% | 19% | Vote Democrat more often than Republican |
| 18% | 18% | Vote Republican more often than Democrat |
| 11% | 12% | Always Vote Republican |
| 32% | 29% | Split Ticket/ Both Equally |
| 1% | 2% | Don’t Know |
| — | 1% | Refused |
How often do you participate in primary elections?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 61% | 55% | All the time |
| 21% | 29% | Most of the time |
| 9% | 10% | Some of the time |
| 5% | 4% | Not very often |
| 3% | 3% | Never |
| 1% | — | Don’t Know |
| — | — | Refused |
If the 2016 election for State Legislator in your area were held today, would you be voting for the:
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 25% | 30% | Republican candidate |
| 35% | 34% | Democrat candidate |
| 6% | 4% | Neither |
| 34% | 31% | Don’t Know |
| * | * | Refused |
Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 38% | 39% | Right Direction |
| 42% | 49% | Wrong Track |
| 20% | 12% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
Which of the following issues or programs needs the most attention from State government?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 21% | 13% | Lowering health care costs |
| 18% | 36% | Improving public education |
| 24% | 29% | Creating jobs |
| 15% | 8% | Holding down taxes |
| 3% | 3% | Protecting the environment |
| 2% | 2% | Improving transportation |
| 13% | 8% | Controlling immigration |
| 4% | 2% | Don’t Know |
| — | — | Refused |
Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the North Carolina State Legislature?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 39% | 36% | Approve |
| 35% | 43% | Disapprove |
| 27% | 20% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | 1% | Refused |
North Carolina has recently been experiencing tight budgets. In your view, which was the single most important cause of the budget problems? †
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 84% | 78% | Government spending is too high |
| 4% | 10% | Taxes are too low |
| 6% | 6% | Both |
| 5% | 5% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | 1% | Refused |
† Wording in 2005: “North Carolina has recently been experiencing state budget deficits…”
Which policy for balancing North Carolina’s budget would you most support?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 52% | 47% | Cutting government spending to avoid tax increases |
| 5% | 8% | Raising taxes to preserve existing government programs |
| 22% | 28% | Mix small budget cuts with some tax increases |
| 15% | 10% | Stop spending on new programs |
| 7% | 6% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
To your knowledge, has North Carolina’s state budget increased in recent years, or has it been cut?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 71% | 40% | Increased |
| 9% | 35% | Cut |
| 20% | 25% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
The Taxpayer Protection Act would limit the growth of spending by North Carolina’s State government. State spending would be allowed to grow only enough to keep up with inflation and population growth. Do you support or oppose the Taxpayer Protection Act?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 72% | 64% | Support |
| 12% | 19% | Oppose |
| 16% | 17% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | * | Refused |
Which of the following policies for promoting economic growth do you prefer:
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 64% | 61% | Tax cuts for all businesses in North Carolina |
| 20% | 25% | Subsidies and tax breaks for a few target businesses |
| 16% | 12% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | 1% | Refused |
Do you support or oppose a state run lottery in North Carolina?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 60% | 68% | Total Support |
| 32% | 26% | Total Oppose |
| 48% | 39% | Strongly Support |
| 12% | 30% | Somewhat Support |
| 5% | 9% | Somewhat Oppose |
| 26% | 17% | Strongly Oppose |
| 8% | 5% | Don’t Know/ Unsure |
| * | * | Refused |
North Carolina currently collects more in taxes on gasoline and car sales than it spends on highway improvement. The excess revenue is spent on other state programs. Should taxes collected from highway users be spent only for improving highways, or should the money be spent for other uses as well?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 68% | 60% | Only spent for improving highways |
| 28% | 35% | Spent for other uses |
| 5% | 5% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
Taxpayers now pay 71%† for the cost of undergraduate education in the University of North Carolina system for in-state students. Do you think the taxpayers’ share of the cost is…
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 40% | 47% | Too High |
| 3% | 11% | Too Low |
| 43% | 31% | About Right |
| 14% | 10% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
† 81% in 2005
Do you support or oppose legislation that gives in-state college tuition rates to North Carolina’s illegal immigrants? †
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 13% | 28% | Total Support |
| 83% | 66% | Total Oppose |
| 6% | 12% | Strongly Support |
| 7% | 16% | Somewhat Support |
| 7% | 11% | Somewhat Oppose |
| 76% | 55% | Strongly Oppose |
| 4% | 6% | Don’t Know/ Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
† Wording in 2005: “Do you support or oppose the recently proposed legislation…”
What of the following benefits do you believe illegal immigrants should receive from North Carolina…
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 45% | 39% | No benefits |
| 32% | 23% | Emergency Medical benefits |
| 5% | 9% | Educational benefits |
| 5% | 7% | Driver’s License |
| 6% | 14% | All Three |
| 2% | 2% | Medical and Educational |
| 2% | 2% | Medical and driver’s license |
| * | 1% | Educational and driver’s license |
| — | 2% | Other |
| 2% | 1% | Not sure |
| — | * | Refused |
Would you support a State constitutional Amendment defining marriage as an act between a man and a woman?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 78% | 61% | Yes |
| 19% | 36% | No |
| 3% | 3% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | * | Refused |
Do you support or oppose the death penalty for violent crimes?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 63% | 65% | Support |
| 26% | 27% | Oppose |
| 10% | 8% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | * | Refused |
Should North Carolina help poor families provide good early childhood development and day care opportunities for their children?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 87% | 85% | Yes |
| 8% | 9% | No |
| 5% | 5% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | * | Refused |
(If “Yes” is the response above:)
Do you think the best way to help poor families is to provide …
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 32% | 29% | Tax credits to parents for each pre-school aged child |
| 45% | 51% | Government grants to day care centers and other service providers |
| 3% | 4% | Neither |
| 11% | 8% | Both |
| 10% | 8% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | — | Refused |
(For all responses to the above:)
What is the best way to help poor families provide health care for their children?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 32% | 38% | Tax credits to parents to purchase private health coverage |
| 47% | 48% | Expand government health insurance programs |
| 5% | — | Neither |
| 7% | — | Both |
| 9% | 11% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | 3% | Refused |
To the best of your knowledge, at the current time, do Republicans or Democrats control the North Carolina State Senate?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 35% | 77% | Republicans |
| 35% | 9% | Democrats |
| 30% | 14% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| — | — | Refused |
And, at the current time, do Republicans or Democrats control the North Carolina House of Representatives?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 24% | 66% | Republicans |
| 33% | 9% | Democrats |
| 42% | 25% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | — | Refused |
Thinking about political parties, which political party in North Carolina would you say provides the best solutions to our problems, (ROTATE) the Republicans or the Democrats?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 32% | 37% | Republicans |
| 33% | 35% | Democrats |
| 16% | 17% | Neither |
| 8% | 4% | Both |
| 12% | 8% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | * | Refused |
Now, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statements …
| Agree | Disagree | Don’t Know | Refused |
There have been a number of scandals in North Carolina government and major changes need to be made.
| 2015 | 62% | 23% | 13% | 1% |
| 2005 | 71% | 16% | 12% | — |
Jobs and growth are more important than environmental concerns.
| 2015 | 63% | 27% | 9% | 1% |
| 2005 | 58% | 30% | 11% | — |
On the issue of abortion, are you
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 55% | 50% | Pro-life |
| 39% | 43% | Pro-choice |
| 6% | 6% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | 1% | Refused |
Now I just have a few questions for statistical purposes, and then we’ll be finished….
First, in what year were you born?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 6% | 18% | Age: 18-34 |
| 13% | 15% | 35-44 |
| 21% | 20% | 45-54 |
| 26% | 20% | 55-64 |
| 34% | 27% | 65+ |
Would you say you are a liberal or conservative in your political beliefs?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 52% | 45% | Total Conservative |
| 16% | 20% | Moderate |
| 29% | 30% | Total Liberal |
| 13% | 11% | Very Liberal |
| 16% | 19% | Somewhat Liberal |
| 16% | 20% | Moderate |
| 25% | 26% | Somewhat Conservative |
| 27% | 19% | Very Conservative |
| 3% | 4% | Don’t Know/Refused |
(If answered “conservative” above)
Would you say that you are primarily a conservative because of social issues such as abortion and gun control or economic issues such as taxes and budgets?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 26% | 31% | Social |
| 28% | 33% | Economic |
| 44% | 33% | Both |
| 3% | 2% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | * | Refused |
(If answered “liberal” above,)
Would you say that you are primarily a liberal because of social issues such as abortion and gun control or economic issues such as taxes and budgets?
| 2015 | |
| 38% | Social |
| 24% | Economic |
| 33% | Both |
| 5% | Don’t Know/Unsure |
| * | Refused |
What is the highest level of schooling you completed?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 8% | 4% | Less than HS Graduate |
| 30% | 22% | High School Graduate |
| 24% | 26% | 2 yr. college/technical school |
| 29% | 29% | 4 yr. college graduate |
| 9% | 17% | Post graduate |
| — | * | Not sure |
| * | * | Refused |
How often do you attend religious services?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 21% | 13% | More than once a week |
| 42% | 34% | Weekly |
| 12% | 8% | Several times a month |
| 5% | 11% | Monthly |
| 13% | 20% | Rarely |
| 7% | 13% | Not at all |
| — | 1% | Not sure |
| * | 1% | Refused |
Which category best describes your race or ethnicity?
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 80% | 71% | Caucasian |
| 18% | 23% | African-American |
| * | 3% | Hispanic |
| 1% | 1% | Native American |
| 1% | 1% | Asian |
| — | 1% | Other |
| * | * | Refused |
Gender
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 46% | 48% | Men |
| 54% | 52% | Women |
Geographic Area
| 2005 | 2015 | |
| 20% | 22% | Charlotte |
| 14% | 12% | Western |
| 19% | 19% | Piedmont Triad |
| 19% | 22% | Triangle |
| 15% | 11% | Northeast |
| 14% | 15% | Southeast |
*Total may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Crosstabs for 2015 poll here.
About the 2005 poll: The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted May 3-9, 2005 by Tel Opinion Research of Buffalo, New York. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina who had voted in the 2002 and 2004 general elections. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 1,000 interviews (registered voters) will be within plus/minus 3.2 percent of the “true values.”
About the 2015 poll: This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted May 5-7, 2015 by National Research, Inc., of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Thirty percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2012, 2014) or be newly registered to vote since November 1, 2014. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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