New WCPSS Enrollment Numbers: Parents Want Choice

They say people vote with their feet. If that’s the case, the steady increase of students into local charter schools and home schools should not go unnoticed – by educators or taxpayers.

Fall enrollment figures for Wake County public schools reveals an increase of 973 students, far less than predicted by school administrators. Equally significant, Wake County public charter schools outgained their public school counterparts by adding 1,362 new students.

The new trend lines should also cause WCPSS to re-think student enrollment estimates, which often form the basis school construction bonds. In October 2013, voters approved $810 million in school construction bonds for Wake County Public Schools. Due to rising costs however, there is talk of another big school construction program for Wake County. WCPSS officials say enrollment projections show the district could add approximately another 20,000 students by 2020. But are those estimates out of date?

A quick examination of the new and recent enrollment data can determine where students are enrolling and the trajectory of student enrollment growth in Wake County. Let’s take a look.

Graph 1 shows ADM (average daily membership) student enrollment for Wake County Public Schools for 2010-11 to 2015-16. The data reveal that while the WCPSS student population has continued to increase in recent years, the rate of increase has slowed significantly. These changes – in part – derive from a growing charter school population in Wake County.

 

Graph 1: Source: North Carolina Department of Public Instruction

Table I details the steady growth in the number of charter schools and charter school population in Wake County.

Table I

Wake County Charter Schools by Number and Enrollment, 2010-2015
	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
# Charter Schools	13	13	14	15	18	20
Student Population	6,193	6,624	7,016	7,473	9,152	10,514

Source: North Carolina Department of Public Instruction

With the expectation that Wake County will continue to grow, it is important to know where new students are likely to enroll. To help answer that question, we examine where new students are choosing to attend school. Table II provides the number of new students by year (i.e. the increase in enrollment over last year) in Wake County by type of school for the years 2010-2015.

New K-12 Students in Wake County by Type of School, 2010-2015
	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
WCPSS	3,662	1,222	4,466	3,259	2,404	973
Charter Schools	167	431	392	457	1,679	1,362
Private Schools	395	51	-87	201	683	NYA
Home Schools	143	-433	907	1,052	846	NYA

Table II: Source: North Carolina Department of Public Instruction and North Carolina Office of Non-Public Education

Table II clearly shows that in the years 2010-11 and 2011-12 the overwhelming number of new students attended WCPSS schools. However, beginning in 2013-14 and continuing for the past three years, the number of new students attending traditional public schools has declined dramatically while the number attending private home school and charter schools has increased significantly. In 2014-15 the number of new students attending public charter, home school and private schools (3,208) easily eclipsed the number of new students attending WCPSS (2,404). In 2015-16, the number of new WCPSS students declined for the fourth year in a row and hit the lowest number of new students (973) in years. Interestingly, the number of new students in Wake County charter schools (1,362) easily eclipses the number of new students in public schools – even without including the number of new students in private and home schools for 2015-16 because the numbers are not yet available.

So what does all this mean? Wake County continues to grow. However, it looks as if, when given a choice, students are frequently choosing educational options other than the public schools. While enrollment in WCPSS increased 8.5 percent over the last five years, enrollment in charter, home schooling and private schools increased 69.5 percent, 5.2 percent and 29.5 percent respectively (See Table III).

Of course, the overwhelming number of K-12 students will likely continue to attend WCPSS schools. However, these changes have important implications for planning and funding public education. Let’s first call for a full re-examination of WCPSS growth estimates. According to WCPSS estimates, 2015-16 student population should be 159,345. Student population is expected to increase to 167,000 in 2017-18 and then to 181,522 by 2020-21. In my view, these numbers are high. Considering current trends, it seems very unlikely WCPSS is will add 25,000 students in the next five years.

Lest one think the accuracy of student estimates is an isolated issue, The Charlotte Observer recently reported that enrollment growth for Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools (CMS) fell to a six-year low. CMS added only 777 students this fall, about one third of what the district expected in new students. According to news reports, 77 percent of Mecklenburg County students attend traditional public schools, 8 percent attend charter schools, 10 percent attend private schools, and 4 percent home schooling. (Rounding keeps actual numbers from summing to 100 percent). As they do in Wake County, the school estimates have implications for hiring, school assignment and overall planning. When they are incorrect, they need to be revised.

More than anything, these numbers reflect the growing popularity of school choice programs. Such numbers mirror strong public support for school choice programs in North Carolina. Legislators would be wise to encourage educational options and adopt funding policies that follow the student and aid the schools.

When that happens, students and parents will truly be empowered to choose the best educational options for their children and voting with their feet will mean something not only for parents and but also for the schools that serve them.

Table III

Change in Composition of K-12 Student Population in Wake County
	(A)	(B)	( C )	(D)	( E )
	2010-11	% of K-12 Students[1]	2015-16 or LFA	% of K-12 Students[2]	Percentage Increase (B/A)
WCPSS	144,856	82.7%	157,180	80.5%	8.5%
Pub. Charter	6,193	3.5%	10,514	5.3%	69.7%
Private Schools	16,084	9.2%	16,932[3]	8.6%	5.2%
Home School	8,033	4.5%	10,407[4]	5.3%	29.5%
Totals	175,166		195,033

Source: North Carolina Department of Public Instruction and North Carolina Office of Non-Public Education

[1] Due to rounding, figures don’t add to 100 percent

[2] Due to rounding, figures don’t add to 100 percent

[3] Data is for 2014-15, Figures for 2015-16 not yet available

[4] Data is for 2014-15, Figures for 2015-16 not yet available