Oct. 30, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
Civitas Poll Shows Voters
Holding Steady on Tillis
RALEIGH – The most recent Civitas Poll sheds light on voters’ sentiments leading up to the Nov. 4 elections.
Voters’ views of Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan virtually flipped in the last month. In our September poll, 48 percent viewed her favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. In October, however, her favorability rating had flipped to 40 percent approving, with her unfavorability rating at 49 percent.
As Civitas recently reported on the October poll, in the U.S. Senate race 40 percent picked Republican challenger Thom Tillis, 39 percent Hagan and 5 percent Libertarian Sean Haugh. Fourteen percent were undecided. Asked about their choices without Haugh, Tillis again led Hagan by 1 point, 42 to 41, with 15 percent undecided.
The poll questioned 600 registered voters, of whom 25 percent were “cell phone only” users and were contacted via cell phone. The survey was taken Oct. 15-18, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.
Text of questions*:
Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
6/14 9/14 10/14
31% 29% 31% Right Dir.
59% 58% 55% Wrong Track
10% 13% 13% Don’t Know
And still thinking about North Carolina… If the election for North Carolina State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the:
6/14 9/14 10/14
42% 40% 42% Republican candidate
45% 43% 42% Democratic candidate
2% 2% 3% Neither
11% 15% 12% Don’t Know
— — 2% Refused
Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of…
Total Total Strong Smwt Smwt Strong Don’t Refused
Approve Disapprove Approve Approve Disapp. Disapp Know
… the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
10/14 43% 53% 24% 19% 10% 44% 3% —
9/14 44% 53% 23% 21% 8% 45% 3% —
7/14 45% 53% 23% 22% 6% 47% 1% —
…the job that Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator?
10/14 42% 48% 23% 19% 13% 35% 10% —
9/14 48% 43% 20% 29% 12% 31% 8% —
5/14 45% 48% 20% 25% 14% 34% 7% —
If the election for US Senate were held today, would you be voting for the:
4/14 10/14
38% 42% The Republican Candidate
43% 42% The Democrat Candidate
8% 3% Neither/Other
11% 12% Don’t Know
1% 1% Refused
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of…
TOTAL TOTAL VERY SMWT SMWT VERY HRD OF/ NEVER
FAV UNFAV FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPIN HRD OF
Thom Tillis
10/14 37% 47% 15% 22% 11% 36% 12% 3%
9/14 37% 46% 14% 23% 15% 31% 12% 5%
6/14 32% 39% 10% 22% 11% 28% 21% 8%
Kay Hagan
10/14 40% 49% 23% 17% 15% 34% 10% 1%
9/14 48% 42% 25% 23% 10% 32% 9% 2%
6/14 47% 45% 23% 23% 11% 34% 8% 1%
If the election for US Senate were being held today for whom would you vote between… **
9/14 10/14
40% 40% Total Tillis, the Republican
41% 39% Total Hagan, the Democrat
4% 5% Total Haugh, the Libertarian
14% 14% Total Lean/ Undecided
And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican or Kay Hagan, the Democrat? **
9/14 10/14
42% 42% Total Tillis
43% 41% Total Hagan
14% 15% Total Lean/ Undecided
President Obama has said recently that he isn’t on the ballot this year, but his policies are. Do you think part of the election for Senate this year is about President Obama’s policies or do you think it has more to do with the individual candidates?
54% Part is about Obama’s policies
28% It’s about the people running
13% Both/Neither/ Other
5% Don’t Know/ Refused
*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
**Results for these questions were released previously.
Crosstabs here.
About the poll: This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 15-18, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or jim.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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