March 25, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
RALEIGH – Two new Civitas flash polls (Conducted by SurveyUSA) – one of Republican primary voters (both registered Republicans and registered unaffiliated voters who say they will vote in the GOP primary) and one of Democrats (both registered Democrats and registered unaffiliateds who say they will vote in the Democratic primary) – highlight the wide gulf between Republicans and Democrats in North Carolina, and provide insights into how the U.S. Senate race is shaping up.
The poll of Republican primary voters shows 38 percent undecided and 27 percent favoring state House Speaker Thom Tillis, with Cary physician Greg Brannon at 13 percent and Charlotte pastor Mark Harris at 9 percent. Heather Grant, a Wilkesboro nurse practitioner, and Lexington attorney Jim Snyder were supported by 5 percent. Icard resident Alex Lee Bradshaw was the choice of 2 percent and former Shelby Mayor Ted Alexander was picked by 1 percent. Clayton physician Edward Kryn was not cited by poll respondents.
In the separate poll of Democratic primary voters, incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan was picked by 72 percent of respondents, with her two challengers — businessman Will Stewart and Ernest Reeves of Greenville — in single digits.
“On a range of issues and opinions, our polling of Democratic and Republican primary voters is like looking at people living in two different worlds,” said Civitas President Francis X. De Luca.
The most dramatic example of this divide on issues is opinion on the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Republicans say by a margin of 88 percent to 5 percent that Obamacare is not working. Democrats say 66 percent to 20 percent Obamacare is working. On abortion, Democrats call themselves pro-choice over pro-life 71 percent to 26 percent, while Republicans call themselves pro-life over pro-choice 69 percent to 27 percent. On the subject of the Tea Party movement, by 82 percent to 10 percent Democrats are not supportive while Republicans are supportive by a 54 percent to 32 percent margin.
When it comes to rating politicians the two groups of primary voters also show a wide split. Democrats have a favorable opinion of President Obama, 70 percent, compared to 19 percent unfavorable. Republicans gave the President almost a universal unfavorable review by a 91 percent to 4 percent margin. Gov. Pat McCrory is not quite as divisive. Republican primary voters view him favorably 59 percent to 16 percent. Democrats, unsurprisingly, have a different view, giving the Governor an unfavorable rating by a 74 percent to 11 percent margin.
GOP Voters
From March 19 to 23, SurveyUSA interviewed 480 registered North Carolina voters who had cast a Republican ballot in one or both of the 2012 and 2010 Republican primaries. Of the respondents, 17 percent were contacted on their cell phones. Margin of error: plus/minus 5 percent
Text of questions:
If the Republican Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? Thom Tillis? Jim Snyder? Edward Kryn? Mark Harris? Heather Grant? Alex Lee Bradshaw? Greg Brannon? Ted Alexander?
Thom Tillis 27%
Jim Snyder 5%
Edward Kryn 0%
Mark Harris 9%
Heather Grant 5%
Alex Lee Bradshaw 2 %
Greg Brannon 13%
Ted Alexander 1%
Undecided 38%
If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Eric Levinson, Robin Hudson and Jeanette Doran, who would you vote for?
Eric Levinson 11%
Robin Hudson 11%
Jeanette Doran 8%
Undecided 70%
Is your opinion of Barack Obama … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama?
Favorable 4%
Unfavorable 91%
Neutral 3%
No Opinion 2%
Is your opinion of Pat McCrory … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Pat McCrory?
Favorable 59%
Unfavorable 16%
Neutral 20%
No Opinion 6%
Is the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare … working? Or not working?
Working 5%
Not Working 88%
Not sure 7%
Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?
Yes 54%
No 32%
Not Sure 14%
On abortion, are you pro-life? Or pro-choice?
Pro-life 69%
Pro-Choice 27%
Not Sure 4%
Poll of Democrats
From March 19 to 23, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered North Carolina voters who had cast a Democratic ballot in one or both of the 2012 and 2010 Democratic primaries. Fifteen percent of respondents were contacted on their cell phones. Margin of error: plus/minus 5 percent.
Text of questions:
If the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, and you were filling out your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? Will Stewart? Ernest Reeves? Or Kay Hagan?
Will Stewart 6%
Ernest Reeves 3%
Kay Hagan 72%
If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Eric Levinson, Robin Hudson and Jeanette Doran, who would you vote for?
Levinson 5%
Hudson 11%
Doran 11%
Undecided 74%
Is your opinion of Barack Obama … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama?
Favorable 70%
Unfavorable 19%
Neutral 8%
No opinion 2%
Is your opinion of Pat McCrory … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Pat McCrory?
Favorable 11%
Unfavorable 74%
Neutral 10%
No Opinion 5%
Is the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare … working? Or not working?
Working 66%
Not Working 20%
Not Sure 15%
Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?
Yes 10%
No 82%
Not Sure 8%
On abortion, are you pro-life? Or pro-choice?
Pro-life 26%
Pro-choice 71%
Not Sure 3%
Crosstabs here.
About the Poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 480 registered North Carolina voters who had cast a Republican ballot in one or both of the 2012 and 2010 Republican primaries, and in a separate survey, 500 registered North Carolina voters who had cast a Democratic ballot using RBS (Registration Based Sample, aka voter-list sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random. Live operators hand-dialed cell phone respondents. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.
Of the Democratic Survey Sample:
Of the 500 registered voters, another 86 identified themselves to be registered without a party affiliation; of those unaffiliated voters, 79 identified themselves as certain or likely to vote in the primary; of the 79 unaffiliated, 26 identified themselves as being certain to request a Democratic primary ballot. The 395 Democrats and 26 unaffiliated voters combine to make up the 421 likely Democratic primary voters shown here. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (85% of likely primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (15% of likely primary voters) were called by live-operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.
Of the Republican Survey Sample:
Of the 480 registered voters, another 102 identified themselves to be registered without a party affiliation; of those unaffiliated voters, 91 identified themselves as certain or likely to vote in the primary; of the 91 unaffiliated primary voters, 40 identified themselves as being certain to request a Republican primary ballot. The 365 Republicans and 40 unaffiliated voters combine to make up the 405 likely Republican primary voters shown here. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (83% of likely primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely primary voters) were called by live-operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
Leave a Comment