April 10, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
RALEIGH – The latest Civitas Poll provides insights on North Carolina’s political landscape. The poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters was conducted March 18-20, and has an error margin of plus/minus 4 percent.
Text of questions*:
“Now, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…”
TOTAL TOTAL VERY SMWT SMWT VERY HRD OF/ NEVER
FAV UNFAV FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPIN HRD OF
“Barack Obama”
3/14 46% 52% 29% 17% 9% 43% 2% —
1/14 46% 50% 27% 19% 9% 42% 3% —
10/13 43% 52% 28% 15% 8% 43% 5% —
“Pat McCrory”
3/14 44% 46% 20% 24% 14% 32% 9% 1%
1/14 43% 44% 18% 25% 15% 28% 11% 2%
10/13 43% 44% 17% 26% 15% 29% 12% 1%
“Kay Hagan”
3/14 39% 44% 17% 22% 14% 30% 14% 2%
1/14 37% 47% 15% 23% 18% 29% 14% 2%
10/13 40% 34% 14% 26% 13% 22% 23% 3%
“Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of …”
Total Total Strong Smwt Smwt Strong Don’t Refused
Approve Disapprove Approve Approve Disapp. Disapp Know
“… the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States?”
3/14 46% 53% 24% 22% 9% 44% 1% —
1/14 45% 52% 25% 19% 10% 42% 3% —
12/13 45% 54% 24% 20% 11% 43% 1% —
10/13 44% 53% 25% 19% 9% 43% 3% —
“… the job that Pat McCrory is doing as Governor of North Carolina?”
3/14 48% 46% 16% 32% 14% 32% 7% —
1/14 48% 42% 17% 31% 16% 26% 9% —
12/13 45% 45% 17% 28% 12% 34% 10% —
“… the job Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator?”
3/14 44% 44% 15% 29% 14% 30% 13% —
1/14 38% 45% 15% 23% 17% 28% 16% —
10/13 43% 37% 14% 29% 15% 22% 20% —
“If the election for United States Congress were being held today, if all else were equal, for whom would you vote, the ….. “
1/14 3/14
44% 42% The Republican Candidate
40% 43% The Democrat Candidate
15% 15% Not sure/ Undecided
“And if the election for North Carolina State Legislature were held today which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather… “
10/13 1/14 3/14
38% 38% 38% Elect a Republican who will support Governor McCrory’s programs and policies.
41% 45% 51% Elect a Democrat who will be a check and balance to Governor McCrory’s policies and programs.
20% 17% 11% Don’t Know/Neither/Other
— 1% — Refused
“And if the election for US Senate and Congress were being held today, would you rather…”
49% Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.
43% Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies.
7% Don’t Know/Neither/Other
1% Refused
“Has Kay Hagan performed her job as US Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give someone new a chance to do a better job?”
10/13 1/14 3/14
30% 30% 31% Total Re-elect
50% 56% 54% Total New Person
18% 17% 23% Definitely Re-elect
12% 13% 9% Probably Re-elect
15% 14% 11% Probably New Person
35% 41% 43% Definitely New Person
19% 14% 15% Undecided/Don’t Know/More Info Needed
“In the 2014 election for US Senate will you be voting for the Republican candidate, the Libertarian candidate or the Democratic candidate?”
TOTALS WITH LEANERS TOTALS WITHOUT LEANERS
36% Republican 35% Republican
42% Democrat 40% Democrat
5% Libertarian 5% Libertarian
15% Hard Undecided 18% Lean/ Undecided
24% DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN
11% PROBABLY REPUBLICAN
1% LEAN REPUBLICAN
35% DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT
5% PROBABLY DEMOCRAT
1% LEAN DEMOCRAT
2% DEFINITELY LIBERTARIAN
2% PROBABLY LIBERTARIAN
— LEAN LIBERTARIAN
15% HARD UNDECIDED
2% REFUSED
*Due to rounding, subtotals may differ from final sums.
For details, go to March 2014 crosstabs.
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted March 18-20, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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