Sept. 3, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
RALEIGH – Civitas’ annual poll of unaffiliated North Carolina voters provides insights into the views of this key voting bloc as the state heads into the election season.
This poll of 400 registered unaffiliated voters in North Carolina was conducted Aug. 23-25, and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9 percent.
Unaffiliated voters comprise nearly 27 percent of North Carolina’s registered voters. To learn more about the NC electorate, go to Carolina Transparency.
Text of questions*:
“Do you feel things in North Carolina are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
29% 25% 31% 30% 19% Right Direction
53% 61% 56% 56% 68% Wrong Track
17% 14% 13% 14% 13% Don’t Know/Unsure
1% — — — — Refused
“And could you give an example of one issue where you feel North Carolina is getting it right?” (open-ended, for those who answered “right track”)
16% Teacher pay/ Salary increase for teachers
13% Education/ Improving schools (Non-specific)
13% Taxes/ Keeping taxes low
13% Jobs
11% Economy
8% Transportation
8% Pensions/ Retirement plan for state workers
7% Voting reform/ Voter ID laws
7% Current government/ Approve of the Governor
7% Budget/ Paying off debt
4% Environment/ Fracking
3% People/ Diversity
1% Gun laws
1% Health care
1% Morals/ Values
1% Other
9% None/ Nothing
6% Don’t Know
“And could you give an example of one issue where you feel North Carolina is getting it wrong?” (open-ended, for those who answered “wrong direction”)
35% Education (Non-specific)
18% Teacher pay/ Need to pay teachers more
13% Health care/ ObamaCare/ Medicaid
10% Voting rights/ Restrictive voting laws
9% Morals/ Values
8% Current government
8% Jobs
7% Taxes
5% Budget/ Spending
4% Environment/ Fracking
3% Economy
2% Other
4% None/ Nothing
2% Don’t Know
“And thinking about the United States for a moment…do you feel things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction or have gotten off on the wrong track?”
16% Right Direction
69% Wrong Track
14% Don’t Know/Unsure
“And if the election for State Legislature were held today, would you be voting for the…”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
39% 32% 37% 29% 28% Republican
27% 29% 32% 39% 33% Democratic
15% 14% 6% 16% 14% Neither
18% 24% 23% 15% 25% Don’t Know
1% 1% 2% 1% 1% Refused
“Please tell me some of the reasons you would vote for a Republican for State Legislator over a Democrat.” (open-ended, for those planning to vote Republican)
20% Dislike Democrats/ Don’t like the way they’re running the country
19% Fiscal responsibility/ Balanced budget/ Cut spending
17% Conservative/ Political stance
11% Morals/ Values
10% Favorable/ Agree with what they stand for/ Want to see them in office (General)
9% Effectiveness/ Republicans will do a better job/ Democrats have done nothing
4% Taxes/ Lower taxes
4% For the people/ Democrats aren’t representing the people
4% Health care/ ObamaCare
3% Obama/ Voting against Obama
3% Time for a change
3% Education/ Treatment of teachers
2% Entitlements/ Welfare reform/ Democrats want to give everything away
1% Jobs
— Economy
5% None/ Nothing/ Don’t like Republicans/ Wouldn’t vote for any of them
5% Don’t Know
“Please tell me some of the reasons you would vote for a Democrat for State Legislator over a Republican.” (open-ended, for those planning to vote Democratic)
23% Effectiveness/ Republicans aren’t doing anything
18% Dislike Republicans/ Dislike their stances (Non-specific)
15% Democrats are for the people/ For the lower class/ Republicans are only for the wealthy
12% Favorable to Democrats/ Agree with what they stand for/ Want to see them in office (General)
12% Education/ Republicans are against teachers
9% Morals/ Values
5% Women’s rights/ Women’s issues
5% Health care/ Like Democrat health care stance/ Republicans won’t fund ObamaCare
4% Environment
4% Economy/ Better economy under Democrats
2% Voting law/ Republicans are against minority voting rights
1% Republicans only care about themselves
— Other
3% None/ Nothing/ Don’t like Democrats/ Wouldn’t vote for any of them
6% Don’t Know
“When you think about voting for North Carolina offices like the state legislature, what issue or problem should be their highest priority?” (asked of all respondents)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
41% 45% 45% 32% 23% Economy and jobs
15% 16% 19% 32% 32% Improving public education
4% 4% 3% 4% 4% Holding down taxes
7% 5% 5% 8% 7% Reducing healthcare costs
5% 4% 4% 5% 6% Government Corruption
2% 2% 3% 4% 7% Moral Issues
17% 14% 14% 9% 6% Budget/Spending
7% 2% 4% 4% 10% Illegal Immigration
* * * * 2% All of them/ Everything/ All of the Above
1% 5% 2% 2% 1% Other
2% 3% 1% 2% 2% Not sure
“Now I am going to read you a list of people active in politics. After I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have never heard of them just tell me and we’ll go on to the next one…the (first/next) one is…”
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPIN NEVER HEARD OF
Barack Obama
2014 48% 47% 5% —
2013 44% 46% 10% —
2012 49% 45% 6% 1%
2011 46% 47% 6% 1%
2010 42% 49% 8% —
Pat McCrory
2014 36% 41% 18% 5%
2013 38% 39% 16% 7%
2012 45% 24% 22% 9%
Thom Tillis
2014 17% 43% 24% 16%
Kay Hagan
2014 43% 43% 12% 1%
2013 35% 24% 28% 12%
“Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
44% 44% 50% 51% 48% Total Approve
52% 52% 47% 45% 46% Total Disapprove
20% 17% 27% 21% 16% Strongly Approve
24% 27% 23% 30% 32% Somewhat Approve
10% 17% 9% 9% 11% Somewhat Disapprove
43% 35% 38% 35% 35% Strongly Disapprove
4% 5% 2% 4% 6% Undecided/Don’t Know
— — 1% — — Refused
“In the November 2014 election, how do you intend to vote?”
50% On Election Day
43% At a One Stop Voting Location before Election Day
3% Absentee Ballot
2% Not going to vote
3% Don’t know/refused
“If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:”
27% Thom Tillis, the Republican
39% Kay Hagan, the Democrat
8% Sean Haugh, the Libertarian
23% Lean/Undecided
19% DEFINITELY TILLIS 4% DEFINITELY HAUGH
8% PROBABLY TILLIS 5% PROBABLY HAUGH
4% LEAN TILLIS 4% LEAN HAUGH
31% DEFINITELY HAGAN 12% HARD UNDECIDED
8% PROBABLY HAGAN 1% OTHER
3% LEAN HAGAN 2% REFUSED
“And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?”
33% Total Tillis
41% Total Hagan
22% Lean/Undecided
25% Definitely Tillis
8% Probably Tillis
4% Lean Tillis
13% Undecided
4% Lean Hagan
8% Probably Hagan
34% Definitely Hagan
4% Refused
“In the upcoming election, what would you say is your primary motive to vote?”
29% State issues, like public education, voting laws, and other North Carolina-specific policies
28% National issues, like ObamaCare, the current administration, and foreign policy
39% Both equally
2% Won’t be motivated
2% Don’t know/Refused
“In your own words can you please tell me why you are registered as an Independent or Unaffiliated?” (open-ended)
33% Do not agree with either party/ Do not want to be associated with either party/ Don’t think any one party is right/ Parties need to work together/ I’m in the middle/ I can see both sides
27% Vote for the person, not the party/ Vote on the person’s views on issues/ Vote for who I think will do the best job representing me
18% Do not want to be told to vote for a certain party/ To vote for whoever I want/ To keep my options open/ To vote in either Primary/ Don’t want to be committed to one party/ Don’t like voting a straight ticket
5% Was a Republican/ Do not agree with my previous party anymore
5% Was a Democrat/ Do not agree with my previous party anymore
4% Personal choice/ Personal reasons
3% Have always been Unaffiliated/ Independent
2% I lean Democrat
2% Do not want to be bothered with mail/ E-mail/ Door-step visits/ Phone calls
2% Not happy with politicians/ Can’t trust them
2% I lean Republican
1% Disagree with President Obama/ President made me change my mind
1% Don’t like political parties/ Don’t like the two-party system (Non-specific)
— Other
7% None/ Nothing/ Not Registered Unaffiliated/ Am a Republican/ Democrat
4% Don’t Know
2% Refused
“On fiscal issues, like taxes and government spending, do you generally consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate or a conservative?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
11% 11% 14% 13% 13% Liberal
28% 40% 38% 39% 39% Moderate
58% 43% 42% 43% 45% Conservative
3% 6% 6% 6% 3% Don’t Know/Refused
“On social issues, like abortion and marriage, do you generally consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate or a conservative?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
30% 35% 32% 39% 38% Liberal
24% 23% 28% 27% 21% Moderate
42% 35% 35% 29% 40% Conservative
4% 6% 5% 5% 2% Don’t Know/Refused
“And, in partisan elections, which of the following would best describe the way you vote?”
2011 2012 2014
35% 36% 31% Total Republican
39% 40% 45% Total Democrat
8% 10% 6% Always vote Democrat
31% 31% 38% Vote Democrat more often than Republican
30% 31% 25% Vote Republican more often than Democrat
5% 5% 6% Always vote Republican
16% 16% 18% Both equally – Split ticket
9% 7% 6% Not Sure/ Don’t Know
2% — — Refused
“Which of the following most reflects your beliefs regarding the impact of taxes:”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
55% 43% 49% 50% 47% Tax increases harm economic growth and cause jobs to be lost
28% 17% 15% 16% 19% Tax increases have no real effect on the economy and job creation
* 27% 25% 25% 20% Tax increases will improve the economy by adding revenue to government
14% 12% 9% 8% 15% Don’t Know/ No Opinion
2% 1% 1% 1% — Refused
“Do you support or oppose exploring for oil and natural gas on land and off the coast of North Carolina?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
51% 60% 63% 56% 58% Total Support
38% 32% 26% 36% 33% Total Oppose
24% 32% 34% 31% 35% Strongly Support
27% 29% 29% 26% 23% Somewhat Support
11% 13% 12% 12% 11% Somewhat Oppose
27% 19% 14% 23% 22% Strongly Oppose
10% 8% 11% 8% 8% Don’t Know/ No Opinion
— — — — * Refused
* Worded slightly different in previous polls
“Hydraulic fracturing, otherwise known as fracking, is a practice used to extract natural gas from shale deposits. Which one of the following statements comes closer to your opinion on fracking?”
49% (Some/ Other) people say that the chemical ingredients used in the fracking process contaminate groundwater and harm the environment, and that fracking ought to be illegal. We should move away from the use of fossil fuels for energy and focus on solar, wind, and other green technologies.
36% (Other/ Some) people say that fracking creates thousands of high-paying jobs, helps the local economy, lowers the cost of energy, and expands the use of natural gas, which is a much cleaner fuel than coal or oil. They say the practice has been proven safe where it is used and the environment will not suffer if managed properly.
15% Don’t know/Refused
“North Carolina has passed legislation authorizing special education tuition vouchers for parents of children with special needs, and opportunity scholarships to allow children to attend any school that their families choose. With that in mind, which of the following statements comes closer to your opinion on the issue of school choice and public schools?”
2011 2012 2013 2014
61% 67% 58% 57% Giving parents more choice in K-12 education will improve education for students. North Carolina should move towards allowing more choice in K-12 education for parents and children.
28% 26% 35% 31% The state should be the primary educator of all K-12 children. Any legislation that allows parents the ability to move children out of the traditional K-12 public school system will weaken public education.
9% 6% 6% 10% Don’t Know
2% 1% 1% 2% Refused
* Worded slightly different in previous polls
“The North Carolina Constitution defines marriage as between one man and one woman and as the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in the state. Do you agree or disagree with this definition?”
2012 2014
48% 49% Total Agree
48% 46% Total Disagree
39% 42% Strongly Agree
9% 7% Somewhat Agree
10% 9% Somewhat Disagree
38% 36% Strongly Disagree
4% 4% Undecided/Don’t Know
— 1% Refused
“Do you support or oppose the death penalty for first-degree murder?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
64% 62% 62% 61% 61% Total Support
27% 30% 28% 33% 30% Total Oppose
40% 36% 41% 42% 38% Strongly Support
24% 26% 20% 19% 23% Somewhat Support
12% 14% 14% 14% 14% Somewhat Oppose
15% 17% 15% 19% 16% Strongly Oppose
8% 7% 10% 6% 8% Don’t Know/ No Opinion
1% 1% — — — Refused
“Do you support or oppose the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as ObamaCare?”
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
40% 42% 45% 44% 48% Total Support
51% 47% 48% 48% 47% Total Oppose
23% 16% 26% 26% 32% Strongly Support
16% 26% 18% 18% 16% Somewhat Support
9% 12% 8% 9% 9% Somewhat Oppose
42% 36% 40% 39% 38% Strongly Oppose
9% 9% 7% 8% 5% Don’t Know/ No Opinion
— 1% — — — Refused
* Worded slightly different in previous polls
“Which of the following statements best reflects your views on public teacher unions?”
52% The primary interests of the public teachers union are to advocate for higher pay and benefits for their members and to advance the union political agenda.
31% The primary interests of the public teachers union are to improve student outcomes and better educate children.
16% Don’t know
1% Refused
*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Crosstabs here.
About the poll: This poll of 400 registered unaffiliated voters in North Carolina was conducted Aug. 23-25, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.9% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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