Civitas Flash Poll: In GOP Race, Tillis Just Below 40%

April 24, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org

RALEIGH – A new Civitas Institute Flash Poll of likely Republican primary voters shows state House Speaker Thom Tillis nearing the 40 percent level needed to avoid a runoff vote.

Tillis was the choice of 39 percent of the respondents. Twenty percent picked Cary physician Greg Brannon, and 15 percent chose Mark Harris, pastor of a Charlotte church. Other candidates polled in the single digits.

“As voters start to tune in to the May primary election, Speaker Tillis is gaining traction,” said Civitas President Francis X. De Luca. “However, in nonpresidential years, primary contests are notoriously fluid. The stretch run should be interesting. We do see increasing recognition levels for Harris and Brannon.”

The flash poll of 392 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 16 through April 22, and has an error margin of plus/minus 5 percent. Respondents on home telephones were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Those not reachable on a home phone were contacted and interviewed by live operators.

Data from a separate poll ­ our regular monthly poll ­ will be released at our poll lunch today (Thursday, April 24) in Raleigh.

For details, click on Flash Poll PDF crosstabs. For our previous flash poll on state political trends, click here.

Text of questions*:

	1. How will you vote in the primary? By voting early at one of the local, one-stop early voting locations? By voting by mail? Or will you vote at the polls on Election Day?
35%		Early Voting Locations
4%		Mail
60%		At The Polls
2%		Not Sure

2. Would you say that North Carolina is headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?

51%	Right Direction
30%	Wrong Track
18%	Not Sure

	3. Now I would like to read you a list of names of people and have you tell me, for each one, whether you’ve heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them.First Jeanette Doran. (names rotated) Is your opinion of Jeanette Doran very favorable? Somewhat favorable? Somewhat un-favorable? Very un-favorable? Do you have no opinion of her? Or have you never heard of her?
4%		Very Favorable
5%		Somewhat Favorable
2%		Somewhat Un-favorable
2%		Very Un-favorable
29%		No Opinion
58%		Never Heard Of

	4. Next, Eric Levinson.
8%		Very Favorable
8%		Somewhat Favorable
2%		Somewhat Un-favorable
3%		Very Un-favorable
27%		No Opinion
52%		Never Heard Of
	5. Next, Robin Hudson
5%		Very Favorable
7%		Somewhat Favorable
3%		Somewhat Un-favorable
3%		Very Un-favorable
29%		No Opinion
53%		Never Heard Of
	6. Thom Tillis.
25%		Very Favorable
31%		Somewhat Favorable
13%		Somewhat Un-favorable
10%		Very Un-favorable
12%		No Opinion
9%		Never Heard Of
	7. Mark Harris.
20%		Very Favorable
15%		Somewhat Favorable
4%		Somewhat Un-favorable
3%		Very Un-favorable
27%		No Opinion
30%		Never Heard Of
	8. Greg Brannon.
23%		Very Favorable
16%		Somewhat Favorable
3%		Somewhat Un-favorable
4%		Very Un-favorable
25%		No Opinion
27%		Never Heard Of

	9. If the Republican Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Thom Tillis? Jim Snyder? Edward Kryn? Mark Harris? Heather Grant? Alex Lee Bradshaw? Greg Brannon? Ted Alexander?
39%		Thom Tillis
2%		Jim Snyder
2%		Edward Kryn
15%		Mark Harris
2%		Heather Grant
1%		Alex Lee Bradshaw
20%		Greg Brannon
1%		Ted Alexander
19%		Undecided

	10. If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Eric Levinson, Robin Hudson and Jeanette Doran, who would you vote for?
20%		Levinson
11%		Hudson
11%		Doran
58%		Undecided
	11. Is your opinion of Pat McCrory … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Pat McCrory ?
69%		Favorable
10%		Unfavorable
18%		Neutral
4%		No Opinion

	12. Is your opinion of Dan Forest … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Dan Forest ?
27%		Favorable
2%		Unfavorable
33%		Neutral
37%		No Opinion
	13. Is your opinion of Richard Burr … ?
50%		Favorable
16%		Unfavorable
20%		Neutral
14%		No Opinion

	14. Is your opinion of the Republicans in the North Carolina State Legislature… ?
62%		Favorable
11%		Unfavorable
19%		Neutral
9%		No Opinion
	15. Is your opinion of the Republicans in the United States Congress… ?
48%		Favorable
24%		Unfavorable
21%		Neutral
6%		No Opinion

16. What is your primary source of information about North Carolina state government? (rotated) Newspapers? Network TV news? Cable TV news? Local TV news? Radio news? Talk radio? Internet? Social media like Facebook and Twitter? Friends and family? Public meetings and forums? Or not sure?

26%	Newspapers
11%	Network TV News
16%	Cable TV News
11%	Local TV News
3%	Radio News
6%	Talk Radio
18%	Internet
3%	Social Media
4%	Friends And Family
1%	Public Meetings
1%	Not Sure

*Due to rounding, subtotals may differ from final sums.

 Live Operators Hand-Dialed Cell-Phone Respondents in this Statewide GOP Primary Research:Exclusively for the J.W. Pope Civitas Institute of Raleigh, SurveyUSA interviewed 490 registered North Carolina voters who had cast a Republican ballot in one or both of the 2012 and 2010 Republican primaries. Interviews conducted 04/16/14 through 04/22/14. Of the 490 registered voters, 366 identified themselves as registered Republicans; of the Republicans, 341 identified themselves as certain or likely to vote in the 05/06/14 Republican primary. Of the 490 registered voters, another 124 identified themselves to be registered without a party affiliation; of those unaffiliated voters, 111 identified themselves as certain or likely to vote in the primary; of the 111 unaffiliated primary voters, 51 identified themselves as being certain to request a Republican primary ballot. The 341 Republicans and 51 unaffiliated voters combine to make up the 392 likely Republican primary voters shown here. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (83% of likely primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely primary voters) were called by live-operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.  In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.

For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.