Civitas Poll: Half of Voters Want Hagan Out

Nov. 6, 2013
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099  Francis.DeLuca@nccivitas.org

 RALEIGH – A new Civitas Institute poll indicates that if the election were held today half of North Carolina voters would not vote for Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan but would instead give someone else a chance at the office.

Fifty percent of voters think it’s time to elect a new person to the Senate; only three out of 10 voters think Hagan has done a good enough job to merit re-election. Nearly half (48 percent) said it was more important to elect a Republican to act as a check and balance to President Obama’s policies than to elect a Democrat; 37 percent said it was more important to elect a Democrat to support the administration.

Asked in January whether they approved of the job she is doing, voters gave Hagan a 45 percent approval/27 percent disapproval rating. In the new poll, that had slipped to 43 percent approval/37 disapproval split – going from an 18-point to a 6-point positive rating.

A year ago we asked voters if they viewed her favorably or unfavorably. The favorable response was 12 percentage points above the unfavorable rating. That margin slipped to 6 points in the new poll.

 “People are profoundly disenchanted with the nation’s direction, and that makes national officeholders vulnerable at the ballot box,” said Civitas President Francis De Luca. “Senator Hagan could face a tough re-election fight next year.”

The survey of 600 registered North Carolina voters was done Oct. 20-24. The margin of error was plus-minus 4 percent.

 Text of questions*:

In the next election for U.S. Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you?  Would you rather…

	2/13	5/13	10/13
	45%	48%	48%	Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.
	44%	42%	37%	Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies.
	11%	9%	15%	Don’t Know/Neither/Other

 

Has Kay Hagan performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give a new person a chance?

                 30%        Total Re-elect

                50%        Total New Person

 

                 18%        Definitely Re-elect

                 12%        Probably Re-elect

                15%        Probably New Person

                35%        Definitely New Person

                19%        Undecided/Don’t Know/More Info Needed

Now, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan.

 

	TOTAL	TOTAL		VERY	SMWT	SMWT	VERY		HRD OF/		NEVER
	FAV	UNFAV		FAV	FAV	UNFAV	UNFAV		NO OPIN		HRD OF
10/13	40%	34%		14%	26%	13%	22%		23%		3%
6/13	42%	28%		13%	29%	14%	14%		24%		6%
3/13	41%	31%		13%	27%	14%	18%		23%		5%
10/12	41%	29%		15%	26%	13%	16%		20%		10%

 

Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job Kay Hagan is doing as U.S. Senator?

	Total	Total		Strong	Smwt	Smwt	Strong		Don’t
	Approve	Disapprove		Approve	Approve	Disapp.	Disapp		Know
10/13	43%	37%		14%	29%	15%	22%		20%
2/13	46%	26%		15%	31%	11%	14%		28%
1/13	45%	27%		15%	30%	12%	16%		27%

 

*Due to rounding, subtotals may differ from final sums.

 Crosstabs here.

 This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted October 20-24, 2013 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.