Marriage Amendment Has Strong Lead in Final Week

May 3, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org

Raleigh, N.C. –  Marriage Amendment proponents appear to be ahead in North Carolina, according to polling done by the Civitas Institute on April 30 to May 2.

Support for the proposed amendment to the state constitution that would give the current definition of marriage additional legal protection remains strong as One-Stop Absentee Voting enters its final days. Applying survey results to current voter turnout trends and anticipated election day voting would project the amendment winning by no less than a 16 percentage-point margin.

A survey of partisan primary voters shows the amendment winning among Democrats by a slim 48-to-44 percent margin and among Republicans by a 78-to-15 percent margin. The largest supporters of the amendment among Democratic voters are black voters (38 percent of the sample), who support the amendment by a 2-to-1 margin — 63 to 30 percent. Self-identified conservative Democrats (23 percent of the sample) support the amendment by an 82-to-13 percent margin.

Among Republican primary voters, the weakest support for the amendment was found with self-identified liberal/moderate Republicans (21 percent of the sample), who supported the amendment by a 49-to-46 percent margin.

“While there is still time for a strong advertising or grassroots effort to change the outcome, it appears supporters of the amendment have the momentum,” said Civitas President Francis De Luca. “However, as I have said before, this amendment is about deeply felt convictions affecting some of our most important civic institutions, faith and family. I believe we have not heard the last word on this issue.”

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

Full text of questions:

Do you support or oppose a constitutional amendment that says: “Marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?”

DEMOCRATIC/UNAFILLIATED VOTERS IN DEM PRIMARY
48%     Total Support
44%     Total Oppose

41%     Strongly Support
7%       Somewhat Support
6%       Somewhat Oppose
38%     Strongly Oppose
7%       Don’t Know/ No Opinion (DO NOT READ)
1%       Refused (DO NOT READ)

REPUBLICAN/UNAFILLIATED VOTERS IN REP PRIMARY         
78%     Total Support
15%     Total Oppose

72%     Strongly Support
7%       Somewhat Support
3%       Somewhat Oppose
12%     Strongly Oppose
6%       Don’t Know/ No Opinion (DO NOT READ)
—         Refused (DO NOT READ)

For the full results and crosstabs, click here.

These two polls were each of 400 registered voters who were likely primary voters in their respective primaries in North Carolina and was conducted between April 30 and May 2, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 primary election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two primary elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since May 1, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 400 interviews (registered voters) will be within +- 4.9% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two primary elections or is newly registered to vote since May 1, 2010.

More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.