Civitas Poll Shows Dems Continue to Trail McCrory

March 27, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org

Raleigh, N.C. – The latest poll from the John W. Pope Civitas Institute shows former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory maintaining a solid lead over all likely Democratic challengers.

Registered voters were asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today and the candidates were McCrory, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, a Democrat. Forty-nine percent picked McCrory; 34 percent chose Etheridge.

McCrory, the favorite for the GOP nomination, also bested Lt. Governor Walter Dalton by 48 percent to 32 percent in the poll. State Rep. Bill Faison (D-Orange) was supported by 28 percent of respondents, with McCrory the choice of 51 percent of voters.

The results showed little change from last month’s Civitas Poll.

“Primary campaigns usually boost one candidate’s profile compared to the other party’s hopefuls,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “That hasn’t happened here yet. McCrory will start the general election race with a base of voters being ‘definitely’ in support of him. After the May 8 primary, the Democratic nominee will likely have a steep hill to climb.”

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

Full text of questions:

6. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Walter Dalton, the Democrat?

2/12   3/12
49%    48%    Total McCrory
30%    32%    Total Dalton

37%     36%     Definitely McCrory
10%     10%     Probably McCrory
2%       2%       Lean McCrory
20%     18%     Undecided (DO NOT READ)
2%       2%       Lean Dalton
7%       9%       Probably Dalton
20%     21%     Definitely Dalton
2%       2%       Refused

7. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Bob Etheridge, the Democrat?

2/12   3/12
46%    49%    Total McCrory
32%    34%    Total Etheridge

36%     36%     Definitely McCrory
9%       10%     Probably McCrory
2%       3%       Lean McCrory
19%     15%     Undecided
2%       3%       Lean Etheridge
9%       9%       Probably Etheridge
21%     23%     Definitely Etheridge
2%       2%       Refused

8. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Bill Faison, the Democrat?

2/12   3/12
48%    51%    Total McCrory
27%    28%    Total Faison

38%     37%     Definitely McCrory
9%       11%     Probably McCrory
1%       3%       Lean McCrory
22%     19%     Undecided
2%       2%       Lean Faison
8%       7%       Probably Faison
18%     20%     Definitely Faison
3%       2%       Refused

For the full results and crosstabs, click here.

This poll of 600 registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted March 22-25, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

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