Oct. 30, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099
Francis.DeLuca@NCCivitas.org
RALEIGH – A new Civitas Poll sheds light on tight Council of State races on the Nov. 6 ballot.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Oct. 20-21 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Dan Forest, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, was the choice of 42 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent for the Democratic contender, Linda Coleman. Forest narrowed the gap since a Civitas Poll in September, when Coleman led by a 4-point margin.
In the race for State Insurance Commissioner, GOP contender Mike Causey has overtaken Democrat Wayne Goodwin, the incumbent. In September, Goodwin led 41 percent to 33 percent; in the new poll, Causey leads, 39 to 38 percent.
Republican Steve Royal has moved closer to incumbent State Treasurer Janet Cowell, a Democrat, in that contest. Royal trailed 34 percent to 46 percent in our September poll; in the October poll, the gap had narrowed to 38 percent for Royal to 42 percent for Cowell.
In all three races cited above, the percentage of undecided voters was in double digits.
The daily early voting results are available in a user-friendly format at the Civitas Institute’s NC Vote Tracker (ncvotetracker.com) webpage.
In-depth insights on Civitas Polls will be highlighted at this month’s Civitas Poll Presentations (http://www.nccivitas.org/poll-lunch/). The commentator for the Nov. 1 lunch in Raleigh will be News & Observer political writer Rob Christensen. The commentator for the Nov. 2 lunch in Wilmington, NC, will be Civitas President Francis X. De Luca.
Text of questions:*
If the election for Lieutenant Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Dan Forest, the Republican or Linda Coleman, the Democrat?
9/12 10/12
39% 42% Total Forest
43% 43% Total Coleman
32% 37% Definitely Forrest
6% 4% Probably Forrest
1% 1% Lean Forrest
17% 14% Undecided
3% 1% Lean Coleman
8% 5% Probably Coleman
31% 36% Definitely Coleman
2% 1% Refused
If the election for State Insurance Commissioner were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Mike Causey, the Republican or Wayne Goodwin, the Democrat?
9/12 10/12
33% 39% Total Causey
41% 38% Total Goodwin
27% 31% Definitely Causey
4% 7% Probably Causey
2% 1% Lean Causey
24% 21% Undecided
2% 1% Lean Goodwin
7% 5% Probably Goodwin
33% 33% Definitely Goodwin
2% 2% Refused
If the election for State Treasurer were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Steven Royal, the Republican or Janet Cowell, the Democrat?
9/12 10/12
34% 38% Total Royal
46% 42% Total Cowell
28% 32% Definitely Royal
5% 5% Probably Royal
2% 1% Lean Royal
18% 18% Undecided
2% 1% Lean Cowell
9% 5% Probably Cowell
35% 36% Definitely Cowell
2% 2% Refused
*Because of rounding, percentage breakdowns may not equal totals.
Click here for crosstabs.
About the Poll:
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 20-21, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.
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