Jan. 26, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099
Francis.Deluca@NCCivitas.org
Raleigh, N.C. – A new Civitas Institute poll shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney leading Democratic incumbent Barack Obama by nine percent among North Carolina voters.
Romney is the choice of 48 percent of North Carolina voters if the election for President of the United States was being held today and the candidates were Mitt Romney the Republican, and Barack Obama the Democrat. Thirty-nine percent said they would vote for Obama, and 11 percent said they are undecided. Romney has the support of 80 percent of Republicans along with 55 percent of unaffiliated voters. Democratic voters would vote for Obama by a 65 percent to 22 percent margin.
“While the GOP primary campaign is still ongoing, Mitt Romney continues to register strong numbers against President Obama,” said Civitas Institute President Francis De Luca.
Romney’s January numbers are very close to the 50-39 percent margin over Obama he registered in September 2011 (Results here) . Romney garners the most support in Charlotte and Western NC, while voters in the Piedmont and the Northeast are most likely to vote for Obama.
In the key unaffiliated voter demographic, Romney has a 28 percent margin, a slight increase from the 25 percent margin he had in September.
The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. For more information on Civitas polling see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
Full Text of Question:
“If the election for President of the United States was being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Mitt Romney the Republican, and Barack Obama the Democrat?”
Total Romney – 48%
Total Obama – 39%
Definitely Romney – 36%
Probably Romney – 8%
Lean Romney – 4%
Undecided – 11%
Lean Obama – 1%
Probably Obama – 3%
Definitely Obama – 35%
Refused – 2%
For the results and other information, click here.
This poll of 300 likely 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted January 9-11, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of probable 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in 2006 or 2008 or be newly registered to vote since November 5, 2008. (November 5 is the day after the election)
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 300 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in the 2006 or 2008 general elections or is newly registered since November 5, 2008.
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But what if the GOP nominee were Santorum, which is becoming increasingly more likely? I’ve seen a recent poll where Santorum garners more support from Independents than Romney, and Santorum has lower net negatives than Romney. Conservatives and Independents are looking for an alternative to Romney and Obama. It looks like that alternative may be Rick Santorum.