Civitas Poll: McCrory Hangs On to 10-pt. Lead

July 25, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org

Raleigh, N.C. – A new Civitas Poll of likely voters shows that Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory is holding on to a 10 percentage-point lead over the Democrat in the race, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton. That’s the same margin separating the candidates in the regular Civitas Poll in May.

McCrory was supported by 47 percent of those polled, Dalton by 37 percent. Libertarian candidate Barbara Howe was the choice of 6 percent.

In a Civitas Flash Poll taken June 29-July 1, McCrory led Dalton by the slim margin of 46 percent to 44 percent. Granville County resident Howe, added to the Civitas Poll for the first time, was the choice of 7 percent of those polled.

“Any one poll is a snapshot of voter sentiment,” Civitas President Francis De Luca said. “More important are the trends over time, and those trends show McCrory maintaining a significant lead.”

Text of question from regular Civitas Polls:

If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

3/12    5/12    7/12
48%     48%     47%     Pat McCrory, the Republican
32%     38%     37%     Walter Dalton, the Democrat
—           —           6%       Barbara Howe, the Libertarian

36%     36%     38%     Definitely McCrory
10%     9%       7%       Probably McCrory
2%       3%       2%       Lean McCrory

21%     26%     27%     Definitely Dalton
9%       9%       8%       Probably Dalton
2%       2%       2%       Lean Dalton

—          —          2%       Definitely Howe
—          —          3%       Probably Howe
—          —          1%       Lean Howe

18%     12%     10%     Hard Undecided

For crosstabs, click here.

About the Poll:

This poll of 600 registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted July 16-18, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.