Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling – Part 2: Is It Just “The Economy, Stupid”?

As we move into the dog days of August, the calendar will quickly turn to September and election season will be in full swing.  Before that begins, it makes sense to stop and see what the landscape looks like right now by analyzing some of the details of the legislative district polling that Civitas has done over the past couple of months.

Part 2: Is It Just “The Economy, Stupid”?

Most everyone assumes the economy and unemployment are the two most important issues in deciding the elections this year, but are those the only issues that matter to voters?  In Part 2, we sort through the numbers to find out.

When Bill Clinton was running for President in 1992, a sign hung on the wall of the Clinton campaign offices saying “It’s the economy, stupid” to remind the campaign staff to stay on message in their quest to unseat President George H. W. Bush.  With unemployment at double digits in most North Carolina counties and near 10 percent nationwide, a similar refrain is echoing throughout the polling being conducted.  Voters are concerned first and foremost with the economic conditions of our state and nation.

But there is another issue that seems to be building in strength – government spending.  Between the bailouts of the financial and automotive sections, the stimulus package, the cost to fight two wars and the price tag of Obamacare, voters have been bombarded with news of record deficits and higher government spending at every turn.  The concern over this seemingly unending spending binge seems to be hitting home the hardest with unaffiliated voters.  Again, taking a look at the polling Civitas has done in key legislative districts reveals that in many cases, unaffiliated voters rank government spending above their concern for new jobs or the economy.

We asked voters: Which one of the following issues is the most important for the state government to address: New jobs? The economy? Taxes? Government spending? Public education? Health care costs? Government corruption? Illegal immigration? The environment? Or some other issue?

Most Important Issue
Unaffiliateds
	%New Jobs	%Economy	%Gov’t Spending
SD 43	35	12	15
SD 45	25	9	19
SD 50	25	14	20
SD 9	20	15	22
SD 8	11	23	21
SD 10	35	12	17
SD 19	21	31	15
SD 25	15	17	20
SD 1	11	21	15
HD 116	9	28	20
HD 25	10	27	33
HD 6	10	18	24
HD 51	16	17	22
HD 36	15	17	18
HD 103	18	15	16

In six of the districts, unaffiliated voters said their concern about government spending was the number one issue that the state government should address.  In no instance did concern over government spending fall out of the top three issues.

As discussed in Part 1, with unaffiliated voters becoming more and more critical in deciding the balance of power in North Carolina, this year may be not only about “the economy, stupid” but it may be “the spending, stupid.”

In Part 3 next week, we’ll look at the effect Obama is having on the elections this year.