All Three Top Races Inside Margin of Error
Raleigh, N.C. – The races for President, US Senate and Governor in North Carolina are all too close to call according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute. This is the final poll that will be released by Civitas before the election.
According to the live telephone survey of 600 likely General Election voters conducted October 27-29:
Barack Obama – 47% (-1 from last poll)
John McCain – 46% (+1)
Bob Barr – 3% (+2)
Undecided – 5%
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Kay Hagan – 45% (+2)
Elizabeth Dole – 43% (+2)
Chris Cole – 4% (no change)
Undecided – 7%
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Bev Perdue – 45% (+2)
Pat McCrory – 43% (nc)
Mike Munger – 3% (+1)
Undecided – 9%
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“All three races are too close to call and are inside the margin of error of our polling,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “With very few days remaining until the election, two big factors will decide the outcome of all three races – who votes and which way the remaining undecided voters break.”
39 percent of poll respondents said they had already cast a ballot.
“As Democratic voters have made up a heavier share of early voters, and the poll has included more people claiming to have voted than actually done so, the poll results may lean slightly more favorable to Democratic candidates. However, if Republicans and Unaffiliated voters do not turn out and vote in larger numbers over the next few days and on election day, Democrats will sweep the election,” added De Luca.
The Civitas poll is the only recurring, live interviewer, poll on issues and politics in North Carolina.
The study of 600 registered voters was conducted October 27-29 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4.2% of the “True Values.” “True Values” refer to the results obtained if were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2006.
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If you would like more information regarding this topic please contact Chris Hayes at (919) 834-2099 or chris.hayes@nccivitas.org.
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