Sept. 11, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
Hagan Holds Lead Over Tillis in U.S. Senate Race
RALEIGH – A new Civitas Flash Poll shows that likely NC voters view former President George W. Bush more favorably than President Obama.
The same poll also shows that Sen. Kay Hagan leads state House Speaker Thom Tillis in their race for the U.S. Senate, though the margin is razor-thin when the two major party candidates are compared head-to-head, without Libertarian Sean Haugh being considered.
The flash poll of 490 registered North Carolina voters who are determined to be likely to vote took place on Sept. 9 and 10, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4.5 percent. (The question about the Hagan-Tillis debate was asked of 283 respondents who had seen the debate. That question had a margin of error of plus/minus 5.6 percent.) Of respondents not reachable on a cell phone, 25 percent were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
Text of questions*:
| Overall this year, will you be mostly voting for Republicans? Mostly voting for Democrats? Or are you undecided? |
43% Republicans
40% Democrats
17% Undecided
If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, who would you vote for? Republican Thom Tillis? Democrat Kay Hagan? Or Libertarian Sean Haugh?
43% Tillis
46% Hagan
5% Haugh
6% Undecided
What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan?
46% Tillis
47% Hagan
7% Undecided
Did you see any of last week’s debate between Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan?
58% Yes
41% No
1% Not Sure
Did Thom Tillis win the debate? Did Kay Hagan win the debate? Or was there no clear winner? (asked of those who saw the debate.)
| 29% | Tillis | ||
| 33% | Hagan | ||
| 39% | No Clear Winner | ||
| If the 2012 election for President were being held today, who would you vote for? Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? A third party candidate? Or would you not vote? | |||
| 47% | Romney | ||
| 41% | Obama | ||
| 7% | Third Party | ||
| 1% | Would Not Vote | ||
| 3% | Undecided | ||
| Is your opinion of Barack Obama … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama? | |||
| 37% | Favorable | ||
| 51% | Unfavorable | ||
| 11% | Neutral | ||
| 2% | No Opinion | ||
| Is your opinion of Joe Biden …33% Favorable46% Unfavorable
17% Neutral 4% No Opinion
Is your opinion of George W. Bush … 42% Favorable 39% Unfavorable 17% Neutral 2% No Opinion
Is your opinion of Dick Cheney … 29% Favorable 49% Unfavorable 18% Neutral 4% No Opinion |
| Is your opinion of Pat McCrory … | ||
| 37% Favorable | ||
| 36% Unfavorable | ||
| 19% Neutral | ||
| 9% No Opinion | ||
| Is your opinion of Roy Cooper… |
| 24% | Favorable |
| 18% | Unfavorable |
| 35% | Neutral |
| 23% | No Opinion |
*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Crosstabs here.
About the poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 state of North Carolina adults 09/09/14 through 09/10/14, exclusively for the JW Pope Civitas Institute of Raleigh. Of the adults, 601 were registered to vote; of them, 490 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote; their responses are tabulated above. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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