Sept. 30, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 Francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
RALEIGH – A new Civitas Poll shows Republican Thom Tillis is within a point of Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan in the race for the U.S. Senate seat from North Carolina.
Of the 600 registered North Carolina voters polled, 40 percent picked Tillis, 41 percent chose Sen. Hagan, and 4 percent named Sean Haugh, the Libertarian. Fourteen percent leaned toward one of the candidates or were undecided.
Asked to choose just between the two major party candidates, 42 percent picked Tillis, 43 percent chose Hagan, with 14 percent leaning toward one of the candidates or undecided.
Also, 48 percent approved of the job Hagan is doing as a senator and 43 percent disapproved. Asked about the job Tillis is doing as Speaker of the State House of Representatives, 42 percent approved and 41 percent disapproved.
The poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters was conducted Sept. 25, 27 and 28, and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were contacted on their cell phones.
Civitas will release further results on state and national political figures and issues soon.
Text of questions*:
“If the election for US Senate were being held today for whom would you vote between …”
5/14 6/14 7/14 9/14
39% 36% 39% 40% Total Tillis, the Republican
36% 42% 41% 41% Total Hagan, the Democrat
8% 9% 7% 4% Total Haugh, the Libertarian
15% 12% 12% 14% Total Lean/ Undecided
31% 30% 29% 31% DEFINITELY TILLIS
8% 6% 10% 9% PROBABLY TILLIS
2% 1% 2% 1% LEAN TILLIS
27% 36% 35% 36% DEFINITELY HAGAN
9% 7% 6% 5% PROBABLY HAGAN
1% 1% 1% 5% LEAN HAGAN
4% 5% 5% 2% DEFINITELY HAUGH
5% 4% 2% 1% PROBABLY HAUGH
1% 1% 1% 1% LEAN HAUGH
10% 9% 7% 7% HARD UNDECIDED
1% — — 1% OTHER (Specify)
1% — 1% 1% REFUSED
“And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?”
5/14 6/14 7/14 9/14
46% 43% 45% 42% Total Tillis
41% 47% 43% 43% Total Hagan
12% 9% 10% 14% Total Lean/ Undecided
37% 36% 39% 35% Definitely Tillis
10% 8% 6% 7% Probably Tillis
1% 2% 2% 1% Lean Tillis
9% 5% 5% 6% Undecided
2% 1% 3% 7% Lean Hagan
10% 8% 7% 5% Probably Hagan
31% 39% 36% 38% Definitely Hagan
— 1% 2% 2% Refused
“Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator.”
Total Total Strong Smwt Smwt Strong Don’t Refused
Approve Disapprove Approve Approve Disapp. Disapp Know
9/14 48% 43% 20% 29% 12% 31% 8% —
“Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job that Thom Tillis is doing as Speaker of the State House.”
Total Total Strong Smwt Smwt Strong Don’t Refused
Approve Disapprove Approve Approve Disapp. Disapp Know
9/14 42% 41% 14% 27% 11% 30% 17% —
*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Crosstabs here.
About the poll: This poll of 600 registered unaffiliated voters in North Carolina was conducted Sept. 25, 26 and 27, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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