Nov. 3, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Monday evening: Jim Tynen 412-600-9925 jim.tynen@nccivitas.org
Tuesday: Francis De Luca (919) 834-2099 francis.deluca@nccivitas.org
RALEIGH – The most recent Civitas Poll shows support among early voters for Sen. Kay Hagan, suggesting she goes into Election Day with a lead over challenger Thom Tillis in the race for the U.S. Senate.
“This election heads into election day where it has been most of the race — with Hagan very slightly ahead, but Tillis within striking distance,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “It comes down to whether the Tillis campaign can get their voters to the polls on Election Day in sufficient numbers to overcome Hagan’s early turnout advantage.”
When likely voters were asked who they were voting for, the results showed Hagan and Tillis are tied at 40 percent each, with 6 percent saying Libertarian Haugh.
The poll questioned 600 likely North Carolina voters, of whom 27 percent were “cell phone only” users and were contacted via cell phone. The survey was taken Oct. 29-30, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.
The latest on early voting statistics is available at ncvotertracker.com.
Text of questions*:
And, have you already voted, do you intend to vote early, or do you plan on waiting until Election Day on November 4th to cast your ballot?
47% Total Early Voter
27% Already mailed in a ballot or cast a vote at an early voting site
19% Intend to mail in a ballot or cast a vote early
51% Will Vote on Election Day
3% Don’t Know/ Undecided
(Asked of those who voted early or intended to) And as an early voter, which candidate is your choice for U.S. Senate? Would it be…
33% Thom Tillis, the Republican;
51% Kay Hagan, the Democrat;
…or…
5% Sean Haugh, the Libertarian
3% Other
9% Refused
Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of…
Total Total Strong Smwt Smwt Strong Don’t
Approve Disapprove Approve Approve Disapp. Disapp Know
… the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
10/30/14 42% 54% 25% 17% 13% 41% 4%
10/18/14 43% 53% 24% 19% 10% 44% 3%
9/14 44% 53% 23% 21% 8% 45% 3%
…the job that Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator?
10/30/14 43% 48% 25% 19% 16% 32% 9%
10/18/14 42% 48% 23% 19% 13% 35% 10%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of…
TOTAL TOTAL VERY SMWT SMWT VERY HRD OF/ NEVER
FAV UNFAV FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPIN HRD OF
Thom Tillis
10/30/14 38% 6% 18% 20% 11% 35% 15% 1%
10/18/14 37% 47% 15% 22% 11% 36% 12% 3%
9/14 37% 46% 14% 23% 15% 31% 2% 5%
Kay Hagan
10/30/14 43% 48% 23% 20% 14% 34% 8% 1%
10/18/14 40% 49% 23% 17% 15% 34% 10% 1%
9/14 48% 42% 25% 23% 10% 32% 9% 2%
If the election for US Senate were being held today for whom would you vote between…
5/14 6/14 7/14 9/14 10/18/14 10/30/14
39% 36% 39% 40% 40% 40% Total Tillis, the Republican
36% 42% 41% 41% 39% 40% Total Hagan, the Democrat
8% 9% 7% 4% 5% 6% Total Haugh, the Libertarian
15% 12% 12% 14% 14% 9% Total Lean/ Undecided
31% 30% 29% 31% 33% 36% DEFINITELY TILLIS
8% 6% 10% 9% 7% 4% PROBABLY TILLIS
2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% LEAN TILLIS
27% 36% 35% 36% 34% 36% DEFINITELY HAGAN
9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% PROBABLY HAGAN
1% 1% 1% 5% 2% 1% LEAN HAGAN
4% 5% 5% 2% 3% 5% DEFINITELY HAUGH
5% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1% PROBABLY HAUGH
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% — LEAN HAUGH
10% 9% 7% 7% 9% 6% HARD UNDECIDED
1% — — 1% — — OTHER
1% — 1% 1% 1% 4% REFUSED
And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?
5/14 6/14 7/14 9/14 10/18/14 10/30/14
46% 43% 45% 42% 42% 42% Total Tillis
41% 47% 43% 43% 41% 43% Total Hagan
12% 9% 10% 14% 15% 10% Total Lean/ Undecided
37% 36% 39% 35% 37% 38% Definitely Tillis
10% 8% 6% 7% 5% 5% Probably Tillis
1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% Lean Tillis
9% 5% 5% 6% 10% 7% Undecided
2% 1% 3% 7% 3% 2% Lean Hagan
10% 8% 7% 5% 4% 6% Probably Hagan
31% 39% 36% 38% 36% 37% Definitely Hagan
— 1% 2% 2% 2% 4% Refused
*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Crosstabs here.
About the poll: This poll of 600 likely voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 29-30, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-seven percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (likely voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute – “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice” – is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or jim.tynen@nccivitas.org.
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