RALEIGH – The latest Civitas Institute Poll shows state House Speaker Thom Tillis, the Republican candidate, leading Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan in the race for the U.S. Senate.
Tillis leads Hagan 39 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh the choice of 8 percent of the 600 registered NC voters polled. When asked their preference without Haugh in the lineup, Tillis led 46 to 41 percent.
“Tillis has a slight lead over Sen. Hagan,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “What must be more troubling for the Senator’s camp is that 55 percent of voters say it is time for someone new while only 35 percent say she deserves reelection. Much can happen during the campaign, but Sen. Hagan faces challenges, including voters’ underlying doubts about keeping her in office.”
Sen. Kay Hagan
House Speaker Thom Tillis
The poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters was conducted May 20-22, and has an error margin of plus/minus 4 percent. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were contacted on cellphones.
Text of questions:*
“Now, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…
TOTAL TOTAL VERY SMWT SMWT VERY HRD OF/ NEVER
FAV UNFAV FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPIN HRD OF
Barack Obama
5/14 45% 52% 29% 16% 9% 43% 2% —
4/14 48% 48% 29% 20% 10% 38% 3% —
3/14 46% 52% 29% 17% 9% 43% 2% —
1/14 46% 50% 27% 19% 9% 42% 3% —
Pat McCrory
5/14 48% 38% 18% 30% 13% 25% 10% 4%
4/14 44% 42% 17% 27% 14% 28% 11% 3%
3/14 44% 46% 20% 24% 14% 32% 9% 1%
1/14 43% 44% 18% 25% 15% 28% 11% 2%
“Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of …”
Total Total Strong Smwt Smwt Strong Don’t Refused
Approve Disapprove Approve Approve Disapp. Disapp Know
“… the job Barack Obama is doing as President?”
5/14 45% 54% 23% 22% 11% 43% 1% —
4/14 47% 50% 24% 23% 10% 40% 3% —
3/14 46% 53% 24% 22% 9% 44% 1% —
1/14 45% 52% 25% 19% 10% 42% 3% —
“… the job Kay Hagan is doing as U.S. Senator?”
5/14 45% 48% 20% 25% 14% 34% 7% —
4/14 44% 46% 15% 28% 15% 31% 11% —
3/14 44% 44% 15% 29% 14% 30% 13% —
1/14 38% 45% 15% 23% 17% 28% 16% —
“And if the election for U.S. Senate and Congress were being held today, would you rather… ”
3/14 4/14 5/14
49% 48% 50% Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.
43% 42% 40% Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies.
7% 9% 10% Don’t Know/Neither/Other
“Has Kay Hagan performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give someone new a chance to do a better job?”
35% Total Deserves Re-Election
55% Total Time for Someone New
25% Definitely Deserves Re-election
11% Probably Deserves Re-election
12% Probably Time for Someone New
44% Definitely Time for Someone New
9% Undecided/Don’t Know/More Info Needed
“If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today for whom would you vote between …”
39% Thom Tillis, the Republican
36% Kay Hagan, the Democrat
8% Sean Haugh, the Libertarian
15% Lean/ Undecided
31% DEFINITELY TILLIS 4% DEFINITELY HAUGH
8% PROBABLY TILLIS 5% PROBABLY HAUGH
2% LEAN TILLIS 1% LEAN HAUGH
27% DEFINITELY HAGAN 10% HARD UNDECIDED
9% PROBABLY HAGAN 1% OTHER (Specify)
1% LEAN HAGAN 1% REFUSED
“Suppose there were only two candidates … for whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, and Kay Hagan, the Democrat?”
46% Total Tillis
41% Total Hagan
12% Lean/ Undecided
37% Definitely Tillis
10% Probably Tillis
1% Lean Tillis
9% Undecided
2% Lean Hagan
10% Probably Hagan
31% Definitely Hagan
“On Election Day in November, what would you say would be your primary motive to vote? Will you be more motivated to vote based on …”
3/14 4/14 5/14
33% 44% 41% North Carolina-specific issues like state spending, education and specific state laws and policies.
53% 48% 51% National issues like ObamaCare, federal spending and borrowing, and foreign policy.
3% 2% 1% Won’t be motivated
11% 6% 7% Don’t Know/ Refused
*Due to rounding, figures may not total 100%
For more information, click on: May 2014 Politics Crosstabs.
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted May 20-22, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.
Editor’s note: Website photo is of Sen. Kay Hagan
Another Civitas “poll” with zero credibility. National Research Inc. is a far-right leaning outfit that cannot possibly be impartial.
I truly wish there was a realistic way that both of them could lose – neither one will be getting my vote.
Atnor,I agree with you.A choice between a commie and a Rino is no choice.If we don’t vote people like Alan win.We lose more with Hagen than Tillis.