NC Voters Curb Their Enthusiasm for Obama, Romney

May 4, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org

Raleigh, N.C. – The most recent Civitas Poll suggests that North Carolinians still have reservations about their own parties’ leading presidential contenders.

President Barack Obama faces no challengers. But of those who have already voted in the Democratic primary, only 58 percent say they cast their ballots for him, with 17 percent saying they selected “no preference.” (One-fourth declined to answer the survey.) When the larger group of likely Democratic primary voters was surveyed, 23 percent said they’d prefer to vote for someone else besides the President.

That might be of cold comfort to Republicans, however. By the time of the polling, no plausible GOP challengers faced former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, but the Civitas Poll showed only 53 percent of early GOP voters cast their ballots for him. Fifty-seven percent of likely primary voters backed him.

“Support in the 50s is obviously good for a real election, but it’s less impressive when front-runners face little or no opposition in a primary,” said Civitias elections analyst Susan Myrick.

Any lack of enthusiasm for the presidential contenders can’t be blamed solely on voter apathy. “This year 24,335 more people have voted in the primary than had voted at the same time in 2008,” she said. This suggests voters are willing to turn out to support local candidates or have their say on issues such as the Marriage Amendment, but are not automatically falling in line behind party favorites.

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

Full text of questions:

THOSE WHO HAD ALREADY CAST BALLOTS

And can you please tell me who you voted for President?

53%     Mitt Romney
13%     Newt Gingrich
7%       Ron Paul
2%       Rick Santorum
12%     No Preference

And can you please tell me who you voted for President?

58%     Barack Obama
17%     No Preference

THOSE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between:

57%        Mitt Romney
8%           Newt Gingrich
9%           Ron Paul
12%        Rick Santorum
4%           No Preference
10%        Other

THOSE LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Would you vote to re-elect President Obama, no matter who is running against him, or would you consider voting for someone else?

66%     Total Re-Elect
23%     Total Someone Else

57%     Definitely Re-elect
9%       Probably Re-elect
10%     Probably Someone Else
13%     Definitely Someone Else
9%       Undecided

For the full results and crosstabs, click here.

These two polls were each of 400 registered voters who were likely primary voters in their respective primaries in North Carolina and was conducted between April 30 and May 2, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 primary election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two primary elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since May 1, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 400 interviews (registered voters) will be within +- 4.9% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two primary elections or is newly registered to vote since May 1, 2010.

More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.