Oct. 26, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca or Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
Francis.DeLuca@NCCivitas.org or James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org
RALEIGH — A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that in North Carolina the Republican slate of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, was running a percentage point ahead of the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Oct. 20-21 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 48 percent chose Romney/Ryan and 47 percent chose Obama/Biden. The results are of course within the margin of error.
“A few weeks ago some commentators were saying the election was a lock for the president in North Carolina,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “More recently, others were claiming Democrats were throwing in the towel. Our most recent poll, however, shows that the candidates are virtually tied, with neither above 50 percent yet. That would mean North Carolina is still in play.”
The daily early voting results are available in a user-friendly format at the Civitas Institute’s NC Vote Tracker (ncvotetracker.com) webpage.
In-depth insights on Civitas Polls will be highlighted at this month’s Civitas Poll Presentations (http://www.nccivitas.org/poll-lunch/). The commentator for the Nov. 1 lunch in Raleigh will be News & Observer political writer Rob Christensen. The commentator for the Nov. 2 lunch in Wilmington, NC, will be Civitas President Francis X. De Luca.
Text of questions:
If the election for President and Vice-President were being held today, for whom would you vote: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats?
9/12 10/12*
45% 48% Total Romney/ Ryan
49% 47% Total Obama/ Biden
40% 45% Definitely Romney/ Ryan
4% 3% Probably Romney/ Ryan
1% 1% Lean Romney/ Ryan
5% 4% Undecided
2% 1% Lean Obama/ Biden
3% 2% Probably Obama/ Biden
44% 44% Definitely Obama/ Biden
2% 1% Refused
*Because of rounding, percentages may not equal totals.
Click here for crosstabs.
About the Poll:
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 20-21, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.
With 12% more democrats than republicans polled it is amazing that it was even close, never mind Gov. Romney having a lead.
Does the demographics of this poll not warrent a mention in your article, considering their departure from the population averages?
No joke! They started with 46% democrats polled and still managed to only get 47% of the votes going to Obama! Says a lot more about Romney’s strength in the state if you ask me!
46% Conservative Ideology? Seems like it should be a slam dunk for Romney.
I completely agree with both Jason and Steve. Where did they get the idea that a 46-34% Dem vs. GOP split represents the party ID in North Carolina? And with that as a starting point, Obama was still able to only get 47%? That suggests to me that Romney will win North Carolina by a large margin!
NC Board of Elections shows North Carolina is 43% Democrat, 31% Republican, and 26% independent. The poll is based on a sample that’s 46% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 20% independent. The poll’s sample is not bad!
Still, the results are partially determined by chance, hence the confidence interval. For an accurate picture, it is best to look at an average of polls. While their are few up-to-date polls of North Carolina, I believe Romney has the clear – but not definitive -advantage.
PPP said that North Carolina was dead heat even and its statistics are supreme so I think this poll is credible. Rasmussen and other out-of-state polling like Gravitas is suspect. By Barack beating the brakes off Mitt in the final debate on Monday and winning 3 out of 4 debates overall, Team Obama has the clear path to victory and the momentum to compel undecided voters to ride the championship bandwagon with President Obama this weekend before the big storm hits.
North Carolina is a bonus, not a necessity for Team Obama but I belive with his advanced ground game and Gov. Perdue’s political machine that he can win North Carolina again. Republicans in NC don’t seem to ‘love’ Team Romney (he’s not one of them) and I think some of them will just stay home on Election Day.
^^ When I speak about ‘love’ for Romney I say so in regards to waiting outside in long lines during bad weather to vote for a Michigan Morman who purposely avoided the Vietnam Draft on four seperate occasions, protested in favor of the war at Stanford as a college kid, and recently spoke with disregard and derision about 47% of NC as victims.
Team Obama has a firewall in NC that Team Romney can’t compete with: the black female. She’ll wait outside in long lines during bad weather to vote for a successful black man who married a successful black woman as many of them aspired to be growing up. If Barack Obama had married a white woman he wouldn’t have won North Carolina or the national vote in my educated opinion. Team Romney can’t compete with such passionate political devotion.
This poll does not include Libertarians Gary Johnson and James P. Gray, who are on the ballot in North Carolina. Because this poll does not ask the question that is on the ballot, its results are not valid.
Given the fact that the NC is a somewhat republican state, to have the sample D+12 is very suspect to me. Aside from samples I think regardless of who you support Obama has considerably less support this time than last time,in 2008 he won by 18,000 votes, that alone makes me think Romney will win pretty handily here. As for Gary Johnson, him not be included does make a significant difference given his support is at best %-2-4. Overall I think Romney will win simply because a sizable number of people are disenchanted with the president and his soaring rhetoric of “change” which is now known to be intense partisanship and distribution of blame.
Overall the President has not delivered and his promise of change has not come true. On top of that he and his administration lie about what happened in Benghazi and try to mislead us into believing it was all cause by an obscure anti-Islam video that no one say.
So that is why I am supporting Romney this time, hopefully we can elect him and be done with Obama. I am optimistic about NC, but worried about Ohio since the auto-bailout has earned him a base of support among blue-collar workers. In spite of that I think Romney will carry Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Those are my reasons. Let the debate begin.
voter registration in NC is 2.8 million Democrat, 2.0 million Republican, so it makes sense to weight it to the Democratic, DOESNT it????