July 3, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org
Raleigh, N.C. – The newest Civitas Flash Poll suggests that Mitt Romney has gained crucial North Carolina support in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare.
In a poll taken June 29-July 1, 50 percent of voting age North Carolinians supported the former Massachusetts governor. President Obama was backed by 45 percent. In the March Civitas Poll, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 45 percent.
The new Flash Poll follows Thursday’s Supreme Court decision that declared the crucial parts of the federal health takeover – Obamacare – to be constitutional. In the poll, 50 percent of adults surveyed said they disagreed with the high court’s ruling; 45 percent said they expected the health care they themselves receive to get worse; and more than half expected their care to get more expensive.
Among independents – listed as unaffiliated in North Carolina – Romney led the president 54 percent to 36 percent. This is the continuation of a trend that began earlier this year. In the March Civitas Poll, among unaffiliated voters Romney was up 49-40 percent. That in turn was a double-digit improvement from February, when he was down by 2 percent among those voters.
Also, in the newest poll, by 65 percent to 28 percent, independents said the nation was off on the wrong track. This was even darker than the overall view: Among all respondents, 60 percent said the nation was on the wrong track; 34 percent said it was headed in the right direction.
“Both candidates have strong support from their bases, so the shift of unaffiliated voters toward Romney is significant,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “He can’t win North Carolina without them. And without North Carolina, he is unlikely to win the White House.”
Among the 89% who said they currently have health insurance Romney led 54 percent to 42 percent while among those who said they did not have health insurance Obama led 67 percent to 32 percent.
Correlation is not causation, De Luca added. “But the Supreme Court decision apparently failed to help Obama in North Carolina, especially among those who already have health insurance coverage. In addition, any incumbent has to be worried when the critically important independents have such a pessimistic view of the nation’s future.”
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
Full text of questions:
If the election for President were today, would you vote for … Republican Mitt Romney? Or Democrat Barack Obama?
| 50% | Mitt Romney (R) |
| 45% | Barack Obama (D) |
| 3% | Other |
| 2% | Undecided |
All in all, do you feel things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?
| 34% | Right Direction |
| 60% | Wrong Track |
| 7% | Not Sure |
For crosstabs, click here.
About the Poll: 600 adults from the entire state of North Carolina were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/29/12 through 07/01/12, exclusively for the JW Pope Civitas Institute of Raleigh. Of the adults, 558 were identified by SurveyUSA as being registered to vote and were asked about the elections for President and North Carolina governor. Of the adults, 509 were identified by SurveyUSA as following news stories about the Supreme Court decision on health care, and were asked questions about that ruling.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.
I clicked on the crosstabs, and I thought it was very strange that you had Mitt Romney leading with Hispanics by 64-35% That cant be possible, since in most cases Romney is polling in the low 30’s with Hispanics. So, I’m a bit confused by that.
I don’t expect that to be the actual result on election day. Maybe it’s because there was such a small sample of Hispanics? Small samples tend to produce inaccurate results. So it was probably an outlier. I don’t know. The rest of the poll seemed believable enough though.
So in other words, no change, since nothing outside the margin of error changed since the last poll.
Again, in other words, the “sky is falling” rhetoric from the extreme right, who hoped that this decision was bad news for the president, has failed to register with voters.
Good to know. NC is not relevant to Obama’s election anyway.
As a Charlotte region resident, the 62% for Romney showing in this poll for the Charlotte region is ridiculous. The Charlotte region has been slightly 1 or 2 points either Democratic or Republican it has never been 62% for anyone. Adding this to the obviously erroneous Hispanics for Romney noted above this poll seems to be very flawed.
This poll is a joke. Romney’s gonna win 15% of black people? Give Obama the 95% of African Americans he will likely get, and that wipes the five point margin out.
Obama’s only gonna win women by two points? Yeah, OK.
Put that together with Charlotte and Latino numbers, and this poll is embarrassing.
Would be nice to see Gary Johnson included in this poll as he will be included on the ballot.