Sept. 24, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca or Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
Francis.DeLuca@NCCivitas.org or James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org
RALEIGH – A new poll from the Civitas Institute found that the Democratic ticket of President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden is 4 percentage points ahead of the Republican slate — presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent. Asked if the election were held today who they would vote for, 49 percent chose Obama/Biden and 45 percent chose Romney/Ryan. (This is the first 2012 Civitas Poll to include the vice presidential candidates.)
In addition, and also for the first time, the Civitas Poll asked voters who they’d prefer if Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson and vice-presidential candidate James P. Gray were included. Forty-seven percent of voters would elect Obama and Biden; 43 percent went for Romney and Ryan; and 4 percent favored Johnson and Gray.
In-depth insights on Civitas Polls will be highlighted at this month’s Civitas Poll Presentations (http://www.nccivitas.org/poll-lunch/). The commentator for the Sept. 27 lunch in Raleigh will be businessman and philanthropist Art Pope; the commentator for the Sept. 28 lunch in Charlotte will be Jeff Tarte, state Senator-elect from the 41st District.
Text of questions:
If the election for President and Vice-President were being held today, for whom would you vote: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats?*
45% Total Romney/ Ryan
49% Total Obama/ Biden
40% Definitely Romney/ Ryan
4% Probably Romney/ Ryan
1% Lean Romney/ Ryan
5% Undecided
2% Lean Obama/ Biden
3% Probably Obama/ Biden
44% Definitely Obama/ Biden
2% Refused
*previous question wording did not include Vice-President candidates
Now suppose the Libertarian candidates were running. For whom would you vote between the following: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; or Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats; or Gary Johnson and James P. Gray, Libertarians?
| 43% Total Romney/ Ryan 47% Total Obama/ Biden 4% Total Johnson/ Gray |
|
| 36% Definitely Romney 6% Probably Romney 1% Lean Romney |
2% Definitely Johnson 1% Probably Johnson 1% Lean Johnson |
| 43% Definitely Obama 3% Probably Obama 1% Lean Obama |
4% Hard undecided — Other 2% Refused |
About the Poll:
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted September 18-19, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. Sample methodology is List Based Sampling. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.
Show the demographics when you post a poll.
How many Democrats? Because I have seen your statistics that show more Democrats are polled than Republicans. And we are seeing more Democrats change their registration than ever before.
I simply do not believe this poll for the state of NC!
THIS IS BS…I AM A NORTH CAROLINIAN AND I CAN’T FIND AN OBAMA SUPPORTER UNLESS THEY ARE IN COLLEGE TOWNS…. THIS IS A FRAUD!!! FACT!!!
this is a Republican poll BTW
Bad news for Mitt Romney. And from a Republican polling organization too.
Why is it that even in conservative polls Republicans are denying the results? Even Rasmussen is getting flak for their results. Are people in that much denial over the results? The same people who decry these results are so quick to suddenly pull up one that shows Romney up. If pollsters are wrong they are wrong. It shows desperation to pick and choose based on your candidate looking favorable rather than sticking with the argument on the credibility of the results and methodology.
Seriously? In you last poll, Romney leading by 1 but losing Indies by 11. Now, he is up by 5 with indies … yet he is losing by 6? You folks do this for a living. How can I spot that in 8 seconds yet you missed it? On what basis do you slant the polls like this? What has happened since July to tell you the PVI has switched in this epic way?
Can you explain how is that Romney is winning R more than Obama wining D and Romney is leading with independence with several points
Only eight remaining battleground states in the RCP analysis. Of the eight, only NC favoring Romney. Obama surging in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado. This poll, by the right leaning Civitas, is bad news for the Tin Man. Obama doesn’t need NC to get to 270 electoral votes but still, why not sweep the table! In the paraphrased words of Howard Cosell, ” Down goes Romney, down goes Romney”(Frazier).
Because the sample is made of : 45% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 22% Independents. That’s just crazy!
This is a serious change from the Sept 4th poll that put Romney up by 10. Sure, it’s been a bad month for Romney, but seriously, a 14-point swing? Even if the Sept 4th poll was a very edge of the margin of error pro-Romney and this poll is at the very edge of the margin of error pro-Obama, that’s a big shift.
I think Shlomi beat me to the punch, but it is a D+12 poll. One expects a D advantage in NC, since many are conservative Democrats, but this is a little too much. Don’t let them get you down; go out and vote and understand that the only poll that matters is the last one!
In 2008, the exit poll had it 42% Democrat – 31% Republican for an 11% Democratic advantage, so the +12% in this poll isn’t unrealistic. Also in 2008, turnout was higher among all groups, so you can’t say that R turnout was depressed.
Paul I am a new North Carolian. I month I am registered as is my son and wife. All voting O’bama. I have run into many like me in NC. People from up North who are voting Democrat.
It is worth noting that this poll isn’t that out of line with recent polls.
Of all the North Carolina polls completed after September 1st…
PPP (9/2) – Tie (48/48)
Survey USA (9/6) – Romney +7 (43-50)
PPP (9/9) – Obama +1 (49-48)
Rasmussen (9/13) – Romney +6 (45-51)
YouGov (9/14) – Tie (46-46)
High Point University (9/18) – Obama +3 (46-43)
Purple Strategies (9/19) – Obama +2 (48-46)
National Research (9/19) – Obama +4 (47-43)
These polls are in line with a shift in other battleground states toward Obama. Obviously there’s statistical variance within the margin of error (which, as always, is only at a 95% level of confidence), but it the above results do suggest that there may be a slight shift to Obama going on. There is not enough data to make this argument conclusively though.
Sorry, Shlomi, but the last poll published by Civitas (taken just after the RNC) gave Romney a 10-point lead with the exact same breakdown by party affiliation: 30R/45D/25I.
But the sample is 44% conservative, only 21% liberal. Is that crazy, too?
42 31 27 was the 2008 split. So they have D+3 R+2 I-5.
In no sane world will NC be even close to 2008 split in 2012.
In 2004 it was 39 40 21 … R+1.
In 2010 it was not available.
The sample is 33% R and 45% D
Mitt is in good shape.
In 2008, according to exit polling …
Obama wins 18-29 vote and no other groups
18-24 (8%)- 72% – 28%
25-29 (9%)- 76% – 24%
30-39 (19%)- 49% – 50%
40-49 (20%) – 44% – 56%
50-64 (27%) – 44% – 56%
65 or Over (16%)- 43% – 56%
The 18% share of voters for the 18-29 breakdown is 30% more than normal (14%) and will not be replicated in 2012.
Civitas had Obama leading NC in September and October in 2008 while other pollsters (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Mason Dixon, etc) had him behind. Civitas and PPP, two local pollsters from different parties, agreed on the results of the race back then, and appear to agree today. This is a positive poll for O.
Also remember that North Carolina has early voting, so O will have his volunteers seeking and counting votes for a week or two.
33%R 45%D 22%I Once again more democrats sampled.PPP the same 13 points over sample.These polls assume a 2012 turnout will be the same as 2008.The North Carolina polls are the most skewed in the nation.There is no way Obama is ahead in your state. No way!
C’mon Spaeth, it just doesn’t matter if the poll is skewed. The point is, with each passing day, nothing but bad news for the tin man. Slant it any way you want, sport, but do yourself a favor – Stay out of Vegas!
these are Rasmussan polls right before 2008 election Florida -1,actual obama +2.8 every other poll O’Bama ahead
Pa +6 obama actual O’bama+10.4
Nc McCain +1actual obama +0.3
Va obama+4 actual obama +6.3
Mi obama+10 actual obama +16.5
Co obama+4 actual obama +9
Nm obama+10 actual obama+15.1
Indiana mcain+3 actual Obama +1.1
n.h obama+7 actual obama+9.5
Nv obama+4 actual obama+12.4
Ohio tie actual obama+4
THIS IS A CONSPIRACY OBAMA AND HIS LIBERAL ALLIES HAVE INVADED CIVITAS!
The poll over sampled democrats by 12 percentage points. There is no way this poll is anywhere close to correct. NC will vote plus republican and the poll has it + 12 democrat. NC will go Romney!
no one with half a mind thinks this poll is even close to being right.
Paul, most of the population of NC lives in college towns, so your statement really doesn’t prove anything. I’m one of those college town North Carolinians who will be voting for Obama, by the way. As much as I would like to believe this poll, I can’t after the last failed attempt by these guys.
This is a CONSERVATIVE POLLSTER. 4 of the last 5 polls show Obama leading in NC. UH OH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Newsflash to polling novices. There are 3 million more registered DEMS in the US than Republicans. Get over it. It’s not going to be a 50/50 sample because America is not 50/50 by party.
There are more registered Democrats in NC than republicans, this is the third straight poll showing Obama up. Just accept Romney’s impending defeat
Paul –
I don’t know if you count Greensboro as “a college town” or not, but I will be casting my vote for Obama the day early voting starts and can introduce you to other supporters of the President here if you are skeptical.
I think it will be air-tight in NC again. Obama may not win here this time, but the tide has turned quite a bit in recent weeks, and to deny he has considerable support here is to deny the obvious.
Phil
As a Rowan County resident who will be voting for Obama, I’ll suggest that Paul’s acquaintances who are planning on doing likewise probably don’t broadcast that fact to him, lest they incur his all-caps wrath.
While this site’s polling might turn out to be erroneous on November 6, I’m skeptical of any theory that it’s been infiltrated by liberals trying to game the election via skewed polling in this state.
Another strange thing – obama won the popular vote by around 7 points in 08. He won NC by 0.1, if I’m not mistaken. So NC was something like 7 points more republican, then the rest of the country. Now the RCP average of the popular vote stands at 3.7 points for Obama. So, you want to tell me NC shifted more then 7 points towards Obama compared to the rest of the country?
Shlomi, actually there are a lot of polls showing Obama ahead nationally by a margin of approx. 7-8 points. The only polls that differ significantly are Gallup and Rasmussen which may use an outdated methodology based on home phones only. Moreover, there has been an underlying demographic shift in NC with more minority voters and people having moved there from traditionally blue states. So it all makes sense. ;-) Nonetheless, I think the Obama campaign will have to work their GOTV machinery to win there. The extended early voting and one stop voter registration and voting put a victory within reach.
One interesting aspect is that this poll came hot on the heels of the leaked fundraiser in which he famously stated:
“There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax…[M]y job is is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”
It is well known that NC has a large percentage of poor whites who don’t pay income tax but tend to vote Republican in presidential elections. Some of these voters have always had reservations about Romney as a Yankee, Mormon, multi-millionaire who they consider way out of touch with their lives. Voting for Romney must now feel like an act of self-abasement.
Chris, from the 9 national poll currently presented on the RCP site, only two have Obama up by 7 and 8. One more has Obama by 5, 3 have him up by 3, Gallup have him up by 2, and Rasmussen and AP have him up by 1. He’s up by 3.7 points on average. I also remind you that Gallup poll registered voters, so it’s probably skewed towards Obama.
Please notice that what I say is also true for the polling for a lot of swing states, like Ohio, Florida and Virginia. It seems that they all shifted towards Obama compared to the rest of the country since 2008. Did they all have such drastic demographic changes?
I think that the polls are just skewed somehow – either the national polls (and then the reality is that Obama now actually leads the popular vote by a larger margin than in the results in 08) or the state polls (and then the reality is that he actually leads by 3-4% nationally) are wrong. The second premise seems more acceptable to me.
Shlomi, I’ve been following those polls and the most credible and comprehensive national polls (National Journal and Pew Research) have Obama up by 7 points. Zogby also had him up by 8 points (that poll isn’t listed on the RCP site). In my reading, Obama is indeed up by 5-7 points which puts NC firmly within his reach.
Moreover, there are 4% more minority voters now registered in NC than there were last time round (nationally this number has only gone up by 2%). Plus, of course, a lot of people have moved there from the mid-Atlantic states and New England. They tend to favor Obama by a much greater margin than those people that were born there.
Actually there is a political shift taking place in NC from a Southern state to a mid-Atlantic state in terms of its voting pattern (with white voters now making up only 70% and a majority not having been born there).
And also, a lot of states have moved towards Romney compared to the rest of the country ( like CO, NH and strangly NV) so I guess it׳s not that impossible. Maybe I’m just wishful thinking…
Shlomi, NH makes sense because Romney has strong ties to the state and was governor of neighboring MA which shares a media market with NH.
Nevada has been very hard hit by the recession and there are a lot of Mormons there who will turn out in large numbers to vote for Romney so that doesn’t really surprise me either.
However, Ron Paul also did very well there and I think that some of his supporters feel quite alienated. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gary Johnson (now that he’s being included in the polls) doesn’t end up siphoning support from Romney in Nevada and, perhaps, Colorado.
For the people all worked up about the party sample, the actual registration numbers for North Carolina are available at the State Board of Elections (ncsbe.gov), and as of today the split in *actual voter registration* is 43% Democratic, 31% Republican, 26% unaffiliated, so it isn’t clear to me what your complaints are.
Problem with this poll it shows Obama winning by more than he won in 2008. No national poll and no state polls even in the bluest states show Obama doing better than in 2008. This would imply that NC has become dramatically more D than the rest of the country the part 4 years. Highly unlikely.
Chris:
Zogby isn’t a credible pollster. He uses an online poll. On 2004 he was one of the only pollsters showing a solid Kerry victory.
Chris:
Gallup and Rasmussen aren’t the only ones showing a close race. AP shows a close race as well. As for cell phones ( a line the left has used going back to 2004 as to why the polls were wrong for Bush), the pollsters you mention ate oversampling cell phones. About 20 percent of households are cell phone only. The pollsters you mention ate using upwards of 30 percent plus cell calls.
Look where the candidates are campaigning. They ate in the 2004 states, not the 2008 battleground states. States like IA and WI weren’t close in 2008, but that is where the candidates are today. If obama was indeed up 7-8, we’d see him in MO and GA, but he isn’t. RCP is correct. Obama is up by about 3-4 points which is less than Bush was up in 2004 at this time.
Boblowblaw, with Obama pulling ahead nationally by this margin I am expecting Missouri to move within his reach. But I think Obama would be well advised to continue campaigning in those states he needs to get the magic number of electoral votes.
As for NC, the demographic shift there has been particularly pronounced. Coupled with early voting and the strength of his campaign organization and infrastructure, I’d say that puts NC within reach if he is ahead by more than 3% nationwide.
I am amused by the right-wingers who just cannot accept that Mitt Romney is losing, even in North Carolina. What ignoramuses! Obama won NC in 2008, and stands a very good chance of winning the state again this year. Now it may well be that some of the people who are shocked that this and other polls show Obama moving ahead do not know anybody supporting the President, but I believe that says more about the insulated little circles within which those people exist than anything else. I attended a reunion on NC last month–a white middle class, well-educated family–and found all who expressed opinions about the election supporting Mr. Obama; not one favorable comment about Mitt Romney was forthcoming. NC will probably be close, but I think the right-wingers had better stock up on their psychiatric medications, because in a lttle over seven weeks, President Obama is going to win his second term.
The polling demographics are in the crosstabs. They polled:
183 Republicans (32.6%)
256 Democrats (45.6%)
123 Independents (21.9%)
Seems like they have significantly over-polled Democrats and under-polled Independents. By the way, Romeny/Ryan led Independents 49-44, which is a far more important data point to most insiders.
Mark Casper (above) took his figures out of his hat. Why would someone do that? His figures are flatly wrong. Obama lost only one of the broad age brackets. (18-29, 66% to 32%; 30-44, 52% to 46%; 45-59, 46% to 46% [tied]. he lost the 60+ age bracket 46% to 51%.)(http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html)
More detailed breakdowns reveal the same results, with Obama winning the 18-24; 25-29; 30-39 and 50-59 brackets. Obama and McCain tied in the 40-49 age group. McCain won only in the 65 and older group. (http://www.historycentral.com/elections/12008/exit/Age.html)
Here are the facts and the sources, Mr. Casper. Wake up and stop making a fool of yourself.
It may be hard for some folks to believe but Obama might actually win this race with an even greater margin than he did in 2008. Romney is a truly atrocious candidate and Obama’s approval ratings have increased lately. In North Carolina, the state has almost certainly continued to move demographically in the Democratic direction (though that won’t always bear fruit in state elections as McCrory will easily win the Governorship). Quite simply, there are fewer native-born white Southerners in NC than in 2008. The state voted for Jesse Helms in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008. Those weren’t the same voters changing their minds. Those were two different electorates, one of which is dead and gone and the other that is growing.
All polls are off this year because they are using the 2008 sample model. If they used 2004 model then Romney would be up by a few points nationally and by 7 in NC
I do not believe this poll how is Romney up in this state for the last couple of weeks and all of the sudden he is down. I remember about a month ago when Gallup had more favorable numbers for Romney all around and it upset the Obama campaign got uoset and threatened to place a lawsuit against them. This is why I do not believe any of thepolls. I believe Romney will win in November.
Romney is going to get many more dissatisfying poll results on Wednesday -please believe it. Credibility & Likeabilty are his most glaring issues.
Right now, he’s being bent over in the polls of the two states that know him best – MI & MA.
Is it any wonder that NC would ultimately pull for Obama with its demographics?
Baptists
Blacks
Big Banks
Are all doing better today than they were 9/24/08 when the economy was in a free fall and banks were falling like dominoes
I think that african-Americans at 22% of the poll, in the cross tabs may be throwing off the results. Was it 22% in 2008 and in 2004 election?
Independent voter: those party percentages are almost *exactly* the actual registration numbers, as I noted above. Thomas, African-Americans are 21% of NC’s population, and were 23% of the 2008 NC turnout.
Chris, Elrod and Clifford – you all talk about the changing demographics, which I know nothing about (I live in Israel). If the demographics are in fact changing, it seems that they aren’t successful in changing the voting registration stats – “In North Carolina, as of Friday, there are 2,778,535 registered Democrats and 2,008,609 registered Republicans, a 769,926-voter advantage. But on Election Day 2008, there were 2,866,669 registered Democrats and 2,002,416 registered Republicans, an 864,253-voter advantage”.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328401/democrats-advantage-voter-registration-slipping-key-states#
So how does all this add up? The democratic advantage among registered voters is smaller than on Election Day 2008, but Obama leads by 4% more than 2008, even though he lost, let’s say, 3% since the elections on the national level.
^^ All you need to know about North Carolina is that it has more successful Black businesses and more successful Black colleges/universities than any other swing state in the electorate and the 2012 Democratic Presidential Convention has them all ‘fired up and ready to go’ in this major early voting state.
If Public Policy Polling, a NC-based, nationally-accredited poll has Obama up and now Civitas, in the wake of its critically challenged preceding poll which it outsourced to Survey USA, has Obama up too then NC is beginning to go blue again. Civitas simply couldn’t jeopardize its professional reputation with another willfully ignorant poll of its home state like they did earlier this very month. That should tell everyone everything they need to know about the accuracy and efficiency of this current poll in North Carolina which had Obama up by 4.
nc has become a little more dem since 08
Shalom Shlomi, you’ve raised a valid point there. The reason why there are less Democrats is that some older “Dixiecrats” have died. Historically white Southern males registered as Democrats but started voting Republican in presidential elections in the 70’s and 80’s. Younger people, on the other hand, tend not to affiliate with a political party.
Today there are more black voters (+1%), more Latino voters (+1%) and significantly more that classify as “other” (+3%) than in 2008. Correspondingly the proportion of white voters has decreased to just over 70%. At the same time, there has been an influx of people from traditionally blue states. Again this favors Obama.
Ultimately, I expect the result in North Carolina to closely mirror that in Florida. I think it is even possible that Obama does better in North Carolina than in Florida.
After much digging, I was finally able to locate your demographics for this poll. You polled 270 registered democrats compared to only 198 registered republicans. Apparently, like most polls these days who don’t care about their reputation moving forward, you are weighting your poll based on the never-seen-before turnout in 2008, rather than the more realistic voter turnouts of 2004 or 2000. Thats sad.
Pat, the base is fired up. Democrats (and blacks in particular) have reported that they are very enthusiastic about this election in other polls.
The same cannot be said for most Romney voters. They are not inspired by what they view as a suspect, filthy-rich, Mormon, Yankee far removed from their lives and concerns. They are voting against Obama but they’re by no means enthusiastic about Romney.
Seriously, do any one of you from North Carolina know people that enthusiastic about Romney? People that are inspired by the Romney campaign?
Any poll taken in NC SHOULD have more registered Democrats simply because Voter Registration in this state as of 09/25/2012 is Democratic: 2,776,963 Republican: 2,007,999 Libertarian: 16,537
Now for those who don’t know a single Obama supporter let me guess why. You live either in a rural white community or a lily white conservative suburb and would never dare step into the urban core of any of the progressive cities.
Agreed, Romney does not encite enthusiasm but i don’t see that for Obama in this election either. In 2008, wow, you could feel the anti Bush vote. I’m from NC and in 2008 you could not go to a department store without being harassed by voter registration volunteers. Harassed may be a bit strong but I havn’t seen anyone this year,yet. I don’t believe simple voter registration is accurate in determining the liklihood of voting for a candidate. I registered democrat 25 years ago and probably leaned that way in the beginning. Your better off to check out a partisan index such as Cooks which provides an up-to-date analysis of the electorate for each state and district. NC leans + Republican in this particular index.
No way this poll is right. With all the jobs lost in NC and more businesses closing like the goodyear plant in Asheboro laying of 300 people. You Democrats, you tell those people that things are getting better. I suspose they can all go to work mowing grass or at Wal-Mart. Oh I forgot, Maybe Obama will take care of them. You people had better wake up, This nation is sinking into the abyss. And Chris I saw 10,000 people in High Point for Romney. That enthusiastic enough? You political hack!
You would think that Republicans/conservatives would trust a poll conducted by “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice”
But here we are… they don’t like the results, hence, the poll is bogus
If Romney fails to win a decisive victory on the first presidential debate this Wednesday . . . he’ll begin hemorraging donors and super PAC support.
Obama won the first debate in 2008 and he did so convincingly . . . can Romney do the same?