Civitas Poll: Independents propel Romney to lead in NC

May 24, 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org

Raleigh, N.C. – The most recent Civitas Poll of likely North Carolina voters shows presumptive Republican candidate Mitt Romney using strong support among unaffiliated voters to take a slim lead over President Obama in the presidential race.

In the survey, 47 percent of likely voters supported Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, while 45 percent supported Obama. This is a reversal from our February poll that had Obama up 48 to 46 percent.

Among unaffiliated voters Romney is up 49-40 percent, which is a double-digit reversal from February, when he was down by 2 percent among unaffiliateds.

“In our first poll since the effective end of the Republican primary and after Democrats have started a barrage of attacks, Romney is not only competitive, but slightly ahead,” Civitas President Francis De Luca said. “Romney’s poll numbers have stayed virtually unchanged in North Carolina, a key battleground state. On the other hand, Obama’s numbers seem to move in tandem with the economic news of the day.”

The Civitas Poll is the only regular live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina.  For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

Full text of questions:

If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Mitt Romney, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?

1/12*  2/12   5/12    
48%    46%    47%    Total Romney
39%    48%    45%    Total Obama

36%     38%     40%     Definitely Romney
8%       6%       4%       Probably Romney
4%       2%       2%       Lean Romney
11%     5%       6%       Undecided
1%       1%       1%       Lean Obama
3%       6%       5%       Probably Obama
35%     41%     40%     Definitely Obama
2%       1%       2%       Refused (DO NOT READ)

* 1/12 was a split sample

For the full results and crosstabs, click here.

This poll of 600 registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted May 19-20, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.