FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Francis De Luca or Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099
Francis.DeLuca@NCCivitas.org or James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org
RALEIGH – A new poll from the Civitas Institute found North Carolina Council of State races currently favor incumbents over challengers.
The Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Republican architect and businessman Dan Forest and Democrat Linda Coleman, formerly director of the state’s Office of Personnel, are within the margin of error, with Coleman up by 4 percentage points. In other races, incumbents of both major parties held leads.
“Any name recognition is important in the so-called ‘down ballot’ races, and that naturally helps incumbents,” said Civitas President Francis X. De Luca. “However, there were substantial numbers of undecided voters in these surveys. Last-minute campaigning and voter turnout likely will play big roles in the final outcomes.”
In-depth insights on Civitas Polls will be highlighted at this month’s Civitas Poll Presentations (http://www.nccivitas.org/poll-lunch/). One was scheduled for today in Raleigh, from 11:45 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Doubletree Brownstone Hotel, 1707 Hillsborough St., Raleigh. The commentator: James Arthur “Art” Pope, a businessman, public servant, and philanthropist who serves on the Board of Directors of the Civitas Institute. The commentator for the lunch tomorrow (Sept. 28) in Charlotte will be Republican Jeff Tarte, the presumptive state Senator-elect from the 41st district. He now is the Mayor of Cornelius.
Text of questions* (Because of rounding, percentages may not add up to 100):
If the election for Lieutenant Governor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Dan Forest, the Republican or Linda Coleman, the Democrat?
39% Total Forest
43% Total Coleman
32% Definitely Forest
6% Probably Forest
1% Lean Forest
17% Undecided
3% Lean Coleman
8% Probably Coleman
31% Definitely Coleman
2% Refused
If the election for State Insurance Commissioner were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Mike Causey, the Republican or Wayne Goodwin, the Democrat?
33% Total Causey
41% Total Goodwin*
27% Definitely Causey
4% Probably Causey
2% Lean Causey
24% Undecided
2% Lean Goodwin
7% Probably Goodwin
33% Definitely Goodwin
2% Refused
If the election for State Treasurer were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Steven Royal, the Republican or Janet Cowell, the Democrat?
34% Total Royal
46% Total Cowell*
28% Definitely Royal
5% Probably Royal
2% Lean Royal
18% Undecided
2% Lean Cowell
9% Probably Cowell
35% Definitely Cowell
2% Refused
If the election for Commissioner of Agriculture were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Steve Troxler, the Republican or Walter Smith, the Democrat?
45% Total Troxler*
37% Total Smith
36% Definitely Troxler
7% Probably Troxler
2% Lean Troxler
17% Undecided
2% Lean Smith
5% Probably Smith
30% Definitely Smith
2% Refused
If the election for Auditor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Debra Goldman, the Republican or Beth A. Wood, the Democrat?
34% Total Goldman
40% Total Wood*
26% Definitely Goldman
6% Probably Goldman
2% Lean Goldman
24% Undecided
2% Lean Wood
6% Probably Wood
33% Definitely Wood
2% Refused
If the election for Commissioner of Labor were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Cherie Berry, the Republican or John C. Brooks, the Democrat?
44% Total Berry*
39% Total Brooks
35% Definitely Berry
7% Probably Berry
2% Lean Berry
16% Undecided
1% Lean Brooks
6% Probably Brooks
32% Definitely Brooks
1% Refused
If the election for Secretary of State were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: Ed Goodwin, the Republican or Elaine Marshall, the Democrat?
37% Total Goodwin
47% Total Marshall*
29% Definitely Goodwin
7% Probably Goodwin
1% Lean Goodwin
15% Undecided
2% Lean Marshall
6% Probably Marshall
40% Definitely Marshall
1% Refused
If the election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: John Tedesco, the Republican or June Atkinson, the Democrat?
35% Total Tedesco
45% Total Atkinson*
28% Definitely Tedesco
5% Probably Tedesco
1% Lean Tedesco
18% Undecided
2% Lean Atkinson
6% Probably Atkinson
37% Definitely Atkinson
2% Refused
*incumbent
About the Poll:
This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted September 18-19, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. Sample methodology is List Based Sampling. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010. Fifteen percent of this sample (15%) are “cell phone only” households.
The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past two general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.
For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.
More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.
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